Definition

“Price Controls” are artificial limits that are put on prices. If the limit is put in place to prevent prices from getting too high, they are called Ceilings. If they are in place to prevent the price from getting too low, they are called “Floors”.

Price Ceilings

price ceilingPrice Ceilings are controls put in place to prevent the price of some good or service from getting too high. This type of control is most common with food, where there might be a maximum price that businesses can charge for things like flour or electricity.

These controls are put in place to protect consumers and to prevent price gouging, particularly so the poor are able to afford basic goods and services. When there is a price ceiling, suppliers cannot sell above a certain price, and this creates a Market Shortage.

With a Market Shortage, the quantity producers are willing to supply is less than the total quantity that consumers demand at the given price. This can result in rationing, or lottery systems to determine which consumers are able to buy.

In extreme cases, it can result in “Bread Lines”, where essential goods are not supplied in sufficient amounts, so consumers need to join waiting lists to get their necessary share.

Price Floors

price floorPrice Floors are the opposite – a control put in place to ensure that a certain amount of something is produced by making sure producers are guaranteed at least a certain price for what they supply. These types of control are common for milk.

These controls exist to prevent shortages, by making sure suppliers get at least a certain price, it encourages production. When there is a price floor, the producers are willing to supply more than consumers demand at a given price, creating a Market Surplus.

With a Market Surplus, the government needs to buy the excess production, or else the market price will collapse back down. In the case of milk, the government typically buys the excess production and stores it, uses it as part of disaster relief, or tries to sell it on international markets.

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What Are Interest Rates?

Percentage and TimeInterest rates are growth rates – it is a percentage that is used to calculate how much a loan or investment grows over time.

Interest rates are most commonly associated with borrowing money, like a homeowner taking out a mortgage or a government selling a bond. The interest rate is how much extra needs to be paid back in exchange for the loan. Interest rates are also used in savings accounts, where you might earn interest on your savings.

For example, if you use your credit card to buy $100 with an 24% annual interest rate, if you wait one month to pay it back, you will need to pay back the $100, plus one month of interest (which is 24% divided by 12 months, or 2%). This means your final repayment would be $102.

Nominal VS Real Interest Rates

Interest rates are usually fixed, but a dollar today is not worth the same as a dollar a year from now. The interest rate you have on your loan or bond will not change over time and is called the Nominal Interest Rate, but the effective (or Real) interest rate is smaller if there is a lot of inflation.

For this reason, in economics we almost always use the Real Interest Rate. To calculate the Real Interest Rate, simply subtract the inflation rate from the Nominal Interest Rate.

This difference is very important for savers. For example, if you have a savings account that pays 2% annual interest (meaning a 2% nominal interest rate), but the inflation rate was 3%, your Real Interest Rate is -1% – you’re actually losing value!

This does not happen very often in the real world. The ability to use your cash has value, and by saving in a bank without withdrawing it, you are giving up that time value of money. Another way to put it is that you need to be compensated for deferring the use of that money from the present to the future. The interest rate exists to compensate you for that value that you lose. If people see that they are earning a zero, or negative, real interest rate in their savings accounts, most would withdraw that money and use it for other investments (like government bonds).

Using The Real Interest Rate

Economics In Action!
Economists generally use the current returns of government bonds as the benchmark for “Future Value” across the entire economy!

Using your real interest rate lets you calculate the Future Value of any investment or loan you make. Conversely, by using the inverse of the real interest rate, you can take any future value and convert it into the Present Value.

This means that you can use interest rates to effectively see how money travels through time. Saving is effectively fast-forwarding your money to the future for later consumption, while borrowing is effectively taking money from your future self for consumption now.

When you make a decision to save, you can use the real interest rate to see how much your savings will be worth in the future. If the future value of your savings makes it worth the wait, you will save. If not, you will consume today.

The same goes for when you borrow – if you decide that the present value of how much you need to pay back is less than you think it is worth, you’ll take the loan. If not, you would pass.

What Makes Interest Rates Increase or Decrease?

The real interest rate goes up and down over time, and varies quite a lot based on the investment and market as a whole.

Loan Risk

unknown credit cardIf a loan is risky, the lender will charge a higher interest rate to compensate for the fact that they might not get paid back at all. On the other hand, very reliable borrowers usually have much lower interest rates.

This plays a big role with investments. Government bonds generally have extremely low interest rates because there is almost zero risk that it will default. Stocks, in contrast have a much larger potential rate of return, but their chance of losing value is also a lot greater.

Lots of Others Are Borrowing or Saving

Supply and Demand plays a role with interest rates too. If there are a lot of people trying to borrow, the interest rate goes up because the total amount of cash available to lend is limited. If lots of people are suddenly saving a lot more, the interest rates will start to fall, since there is less competition to borrow.

Expected Inflation

The expected rate of inflation also plays a major role on interest rates. Look at it this way – if you want to lend $100 to a friend to be paid back in one year, you would be a lot more interested in your real rate of return, which is based on inflation. If you think there will be a lot of inflation in the next year, you would increase the interest rate you’re asking to make sure your real rate of return keeps up.

What Do High Interest Rates Mean?

At the end of the day, when real interest rates are high across the economy, it means that a lot of people and businesses are borrowing money. This means that there is a general shift from saving to spending, and the allocation of resources over time has shifted from the future to the present (as a total economy, we are borrowing money from our future selves).

Economics In Action!
When the economy is in a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to lower interest rates to encourage borrowing. In an expansion, they raise interest rates to prevent a crash.

Higher interest rates mean that it is getting more expensive to borrow, which encourages people to save more, which starts to shift the balance of resources back to the future, and cause interest rates to fall in the long term.

In the short term, making it more expensive to borrow money means that people and businesses will be spending less on large purchases, like buying new equipment or a new house.

Having very high interest rates acts as a kind of “break” on the economy, slowing things down as people and businesses try to put off large purchases. This has a ripple effect through the economy. Rising interest rates are typically a result of economic growth, while falling interest rates are typically a symptom of an economic slowdown.

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Definition

Scarcity refers to the fact that resources are finite – people and organizations need to allocate their finite resources between their infinite wants.

Each year, the world produces more goods and services, along with better technologies and processes that can increase output farther. Even with this growth, there will always be scarcity, because there will always be the question of the best way to allocate the resources we have available.

Allocating Resources

Each person and organization needs to allocate their scarce resources among everything they want and need. Resources are also allocated between consumption and investment – how much you choose to use today against how much you save for the future (and use to improve how much you can produce tomorrow).

People

Each person works to earn an income, their income is their primary resource they need to allocate, but they also have a limited amount of time. This means that every year, you have 52 weeks of time and however much income you earn, which you can allocate to the best way you see fit.

Allocating Income

You can use more of your income for consumption and less for saving, but this might mean that you will have less consumption later when you lose your job or retire. You can save and invest more of your income, but that means you will have less available to consume today.

Generally speaking, as a person’s income goes up, the higher percentage of it is used for saving and investment, since each additional dollar you spend on consumption is just a little bit less effective than the last.

consumption

This is why it doesn’t seem like people who make $2 million a year seem that much better off than people who make $1 million – once consumption levels get up to a certain level, spending much more will only make you a little bit better off.

Allocating Time

You have a similar problem with what you will do with your time. Most people try to work for 8 hours a day, sleep about 7 hours, and use the remaining time for leisure (and preparing for work or spending time with family). Each person, in theory, has a choice to work more or fewer hours (getting an extra part-time job on the weekends, for example), or they can choose to use some of their leisure time to build new skills by going to school or learning a trade.

This balance between building skills, relaxing, raising a family, and working is the second fundamental problem of scarcity that an individual faces. Regardless of how much money they earn, there will always be limited time.

Businesses

Businesses have their own scarcity problems. One of the classic conflicts is investment between Marketing and Research. Companies can invest much more in building the best possible products, but without sufficient marketing the general public might not even know they exist. On the other hand, they can invest heavily in marketing their existing products, but this comes at a cost of less product development and new technology being developed.

Governments

Governments are also faced with serious allocation problems. Tax revenue can be used on nearly infinite numbers of different projects and programs, from helping the poor to funding national defense.

There is also the same fundamental problem of individuals – how much should governments invest in advancing research and technology to help the economy grow, versus programs specifically to help the poor?

In theory, these questions are answered (at least in part) by voters by electing leaders with different platforms, but the “nuts and bolts” of each program, and the specific balance of resource allocation, is still a problem that governments face each day.

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Definition

“Specialization” is when a labor force begins to divide total production, leading to a rise of experts or specialists. This is called the Division of Labor, and it typically results in much higher productivity of labor.

How Does It Work?

Specialization has two main parts – Division of Labor, and a rise of Experts.

Division of Labor

Alice, Bob, Carol, and DanImagine there is a company that builds cars. At first, there are just four employees – Alice, Bob, Carol, and Dan. They are building each vehicle by hand, and all work together in each part of production. In this case, each person is switching their tasks quite often, and so becomes proficient at nearly all aspects of the business. These tasks include:

  • Assembling the motor
  • Building the body of the car
  • Sewing the seats and upholstery
  • Selling the finished cars

Over time, it becomes apparent that each person is better at some tasks than others. For example,

  • Alice and Bob are both very good at the small details, like fine-tuning the engines and sewing upholstery
  • Carol is very out-going, and makes a good salesperson
  • Dan greatly enjoys working with metal and design

In this case, Alice and Bob are going to be more efficient at building the motors and sewing the seats, so if they work on these tasks themselves, more will get done faster. At the same time, if Carol does all the sales work, they will be able to sell more cars faster, since she is better at it. Dan likes doing the metalwork and design, so he will be more effective at building of the body of the car.

ford logoAfter the four focus on their strengths, each car that is produced is of higher quality, is produced more quickly, and the business operations are running smoother.

The Division of Labor is the idea of breaking the total production of a good or service down to basic parts, which can then be tackled by the people who are best suited for each task. The Division of Labor was the driving force behind the Assembly Line, which is what propelled Ford Motor Company (F) to the head of the automotive industry in the early 1900’s, where it remains to this day.

Rise of Experts

In our example before, Alice and Bob are both working on the minute details of building engines and sewing upholstery, and are both equally good at both. In this case, it is still possible to increase their efficiency if they focus on becoming an Expert or Specialist at one of the tasks.

Economics In Action!
A jack of all trades is a master of none! By specializing, workers are able to quickly set themselves apart from everyone else by becoming an Expert in their field.

By focusing on just one task each, for example Alice on engine building and Bob on the upholstery, they both get much more concentrated practice on their craft – this focused practice, and the potential for them to focus on new and better techniques, will quickly make them even better at what they focused on than they were before. Even in places where all workers start off with the same basic skills and aptitudes, by dividing the labor it enables each worker to become a specialist on the particular job they are doing, which makes each person more efficient, and increases total output.

Comparative Advantage

Specialization can take place at any level in any economy. It could be workers in a single factory specializing in one part of a production process all the way up to one country focusing on producing one type of good that they are best at.

A Comparative Advantage is how much better one person, company, or country is at one particular task than another. People generally try to stick to their strengths – this means they try to work with their comparative advantages, and trade to get things that they are less adept at making themselves.

For example, farmers have a comparative advantage in producing grain, while factories have a comparative advantage in building a tractor. If the farmer sells grain to buy a tractor, he will be able to get a much better one, with a lot less effort, than if he tried to build one himself. Similarly, factory workers have a much easier time building a tractor than they do going out into fields to try to grow their own food. By having both groups engage in trade, aligned with their own comparative advantages, the total output is much higher.

Comparative Advantages can be either innate (like Carol being a better salesperson than Dan) or developed (like Alice becoming an expert in engine building, gaining a comparative advantage over Bob).

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Definition

“Opportunity Cost” is what needs to be given up to get something. This is different from an item’s price.

mixedlogoImagine you want to buy some stock for your virtual portfolio – you can afford one share of either Apple (AAPL) or Alphabet, Inc. (GOOG).

Your Opportunity Cost of buying one is that you cannot also buy the other, meaning you’ll miss out on any potential returns and dividends.

This problem appears in every choice you make – by doing one thing, you can’t do something else. Keeping the opportunity cost of each decision in mind is an important part of both personal finance and economics. Each person needs to keep in mind what they are giving up from each choice (whether it is using their cash to buy one thing or another, or to use it for saving and investing) in order to make sure they are making the most of the resources they have available.

Opportunity Cost For Producers

Producers also face opportunity cost: what will they make?

By putting resources towards building one product, they miss out on potential profits they could have earned by making something else. The same dollar cannot be spent on marketing, research, production, and paying building rental, so all managers need to balance all of the opportunity costs of each decision with the potential benefits.

These opportunity costs also change a lot over time. As a business gets bigger, they have more resources to go around, which means that their opportunity costs (what they need to give up) from each individual action goes down while the potential possibilities goes up.

Opportunity Cost For Consumers

Each time you make a choice between two or more alternatives, you are indirectly saying that the benefit you get is bigger than the opportunity cost. This is not just how you spend your money, it also is how you spend your time.

You could use the same Saturday afternoon to go out with friends, play video games, do research on a new stock you want to buy, practice a new skill, watch TV, find a part-time job, study for school, and everything in between. Whichever option you choose, you have to give the others up, because you can’t be in two places at once.

How do you choose to use your time and resources?

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Everyone knows about costs and benefits of doing something – the pros and cons of making a choice. Marginal benefit and marginal cost are different – they look more closely at doing slightly more or less of different alternatives. Marginal costs and benefits are extremely important to producers when choosing their inputs and prices.

What Does “Marginal” Mean?

Economics In Action!
“Marginal” benefits and costs are a core concept in economics used to find everything from the number of iphones produced to how many roads are repaired!

When we use the term “Marginal”, it usually means doing one more of something. For example, a marginal cost would be how much it would cost a company to produce 1 more of a good. Their marginal benefit would be the extra revenue they get from producing that one extra good.

Knowing this is important because it helps producers determine the total quantity they produce, and at what price they list them for in the marketplace.

Average Cost – The U Curve

Producers create goods and services through a combination of capital goods (like machines and computers) and labor (workers they hire).

In the short run, producers cannot add capital, so when a producer is deciding how much goods they will produce next month, they assume their total capital is fixed – all they can do is hire more workers.

Unfortunately, just doubling the number of workers you have will not double your output. As a business adds more workers, but keeps their capital constant, at first the workers will become more efficient (able to effectively divide their labor through specialization, and more effectively able to use the capital goods). At a certain point, though, each additional worker you add will make the average output per worker start to fall.

Think of it this way: Imagine you are running a farm growing carrots, and you have one truck that you use to bring the carrots to the market where they are sold. You can hire workers to help you dig up the carrots, wash them, and drive them to the market.

  • When you are working alone, you have to switch tasks a lot, wasting a lot of time
  • When you hire your first person, one of you can dig up carrots, while the second washes them and takes them in the truck to sell
  • With four workers, there can be two diggers and two washers, while you drive the truck

This works well – with your first four workers, each person makes the whole process more efficient, and now the truck is being used the full time.

When you start hiring even more workers, though, your truck will eventually hit its capacity to carry and move all the carrots, and so people will need to wait for you to get back and reload. The more people you add to the work force, the more time will be spent waiting, since you can’t speed up the truck. When workers are waiting, that means you’re paying them while you aren’t getting any extra work done, so everyone is less productive. This same relationship, where labor reaches the productive limits of capital, creates a U shaped curve when we look at the average cost of production.

average cost curve

At first, your average cost goes down rapidly – this is when you hire your first workers. This period, where the average cost is decreasing, is known as Economies of Scale.

In the middle, there is a long flat area where you are near your minimum average cost. This is the area where the truck is working most of the time, but you can still pack in a few extra carrots on the truck each time it goes.

As you get farther right, the average cost starts going up. This is where you have workers waiting to use the truck. This area is called “Disceconomies of Scale”.

Role of Marginal Cost

Marginal Cost has the same kind of relationship – as you increase your production, your marginal cost will go up (how much it costs to bring one more carrot to market). In fact, the marginal cost actually starts going up before the average cost, and they share an interesting relationship.

marginal cost

The Marginal Cost curve will always intersect the absolute minimum point of the average cost curve. This relationship is useful – when an economist wants to calculate the minimum average cost, all they need is a formula for the average cost and marginal cost, and find the quantity where they are equal.

Marginal Benefits

The “Marginal Benefits” are the extra benefit that a producer gets from producing one more unit of a good. For businesses, this is also called the Marginal Revenue.

The Marginal Revenue curve looks very similar to the Demand curve, just slightly steeper.

marginal revenue

This is because for each extra unit a business sells, the less revenue they get for each because they need to keep lowering their cost to sell everything they produce.

Profit Maximization – Businesses

For a business, they will reach their maximum levels of profit where they can get their marginal benefits to equal marginal costs:

Profit maximization point

Economics In Action!
Economists use calculus to calculate the Marginal Revenue and Marginal Cost, and set them equal to find profit maximization points for production!

This is because of how marginal revenue and marginal cost work. If the marginal revenue is greater than marginal cost, a company will make a little bit more profit by producing and selling one more unit. If the marginal cost is greater than marginal revenue, the company is making a loss at their current level of production (selling goods for less than the additional cost of making it), so they will reduce their production.

  • Marginal Revenue < Marginal Cost => Decrease Production
  • Marginal Revenue > Marginal Cost => Increase Production
  • Marginal Revenue = Marginal Cost => Profit Maximized

This works because demand is figured in to the marginal revenue. This also means that companies use their “Marginal Cost” curve as their Supply Line, so this relationship is the exact same as you see with normal Supply and Demand curves.

Marginal Costs and Benefits With Public Services

The relationship between marginal costs and marginal benefits is also extremely important when governments and voters determine how much, and what type, of public services are provided.

Generally speaking, governments are constantly adjusting how much spending they put towards different programs. This means that when they want to allocate an extra $1000 between 10 different programs, they need to measure the marginal benefit that $1000 will bring to each.

Affordable-HousingFor example, it is currently possible for the governments in most cities in the United States to completely eliminate homelessness if they applied 100% of their city budget towards building new homes for the poor. The cost of this would be every other program, from water treatment, to police forces and fire departments, and schools.

The primary job of elected officials is trying to find which programs will get the greatest marginal benefit from an increase in spending, and which programs have the lowest marginal costs from a decrease. If the net benefit to the voters can be increased by transferring resources from one program to another, that is what they usually try to pursue.

Actually calculating these benefits and costs can be much more difficult – a difference in opinion over what programs produce the largest marginal benefits and which are sources of the biggest marginal costs is the biggest issue that divides voters between candidates.

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What is Competition?

“Competition” is when many producers try to sell similar goods to the same set of consumers. The producers need to “compete” to try to attract more consumers, usually by lowering prices, offering better versions of the goods or services, or through marketing.

Competition is the core concept of the Market Economy.

Why Does Competition Work?

Competition generally leads to lower prices, more choice, and better qualities of products for consumers than other types of economies. The reason for this is that with competition, there is very little “central planning” of the economy, while producers and consumers are able to act in their own self-interest.

For a producer, this means that they want to attract as many customers as possible, and earn the highest profit. In an ideal setting, there are thousands of potential producers for any good.

Example – Selling Ice

Lets say that a new market has opened – there is a street full of people who want to buy ice cubes. On this street is a building full of people who have freezers and tap water, so they are able to make ice cubes, and sell them.

Potential Ice MakersImmediately, one person makes and sells 100 ice cubes for $10, with no cost other than time. Because of Supply and Demand, very few of the consumers are willing to buy at this price (see our article on Supply and Demand Examples in the Stock Market for details). One Seller

Price War

Seeing this profit, everyone else in the building starts making and selling ice. To get more profit, they also lower their price to attract more customers. Since there is no difference in the ice made by each of the producers, all of the consumers always take the lowest possible price, which forces the producers to keep matching the lowest price offered by anyone else.

price war

At this low price, some of the producers decide that it is not worth their time and effort to keep producing, and so they drop out of the market. This means that the remaining producers can raise their prices a bit, since there is no longer as big of a market surplus.

price war 2

The Price War caused the market price to fall by a huge amount (70% at one point), and caused some of the less efficient producers to drop out of the market. In the end, the consumers finished with a large reduction in the overall market price.

Product Innovation

The remaining sellers still want to attract more buyers and earn higher profits, but at this point it is not possible while they are selling identical products. The result is product differentiation, or making their ice slightly different from the competition.

Product Differentiation is a form of innovation that requires investment, this can include things like new machines or processes that reduce cost, or new features or product advantages that make it more attractive to consumers.

For our Ice Sellers, lets say that some of the sellers used their profits to invest in new higher-capacity and energy-efficiency freezers that make it cheaper and easier for them to produce the same ice.

At the same time, some of the other sellers used their profits to research methods to make “Luxury Ice“, like ice spheres and crystal-clear large cubes, which they can then sell at a higher price.

Ice Innovation

Notice that at this point, there aren’t any more people buying the $5 ice anymore. This is because the “low-cost” producers are making the same ice for cheaper, while the “Luxury” ice makers are getting all the customers who are willing to pay more for a better product.

The companies that don’t innovate lose their profits, and eventually are forced to close. The competitive market resulted in a greater range of products, and a greater range of prices, for the consumers.

Other Factors That Influence Competition

In the ice makers example above, all of the producers and consumers started in equal footing – all of the producers started with everything they needed to start making ice, and all the consumers knew who was selling what kind of ice and at what price. This is not usually the case in the real world, which can distort the normal competition.

Barriers of Entry

A “barrier of entry” is something that prevents a new producer from entering the market and selling a competitive good. At the start of our Ice Makers example, there were no barriers to entry, since all of the potential producers had the same freezers and the same water.

At the end of the example, however, some barriers had appeared. One group of ice makers invested in better freezers that could make the same ice as everyone else, but cheaper. This means that any new seller would have to invest in the same class of freezer in order to compete. One major barrier to entry in almost every industry is the ability to raise capital, or get the necessary investment to start producing and selling. The ability to raise capital is called a “Natural Barrier“, since it is the direct result of competition and improvements to the market. These barriers are not seen as “bad”, since they are the natural result of market innovation and product differentiation.

Economics In Action!
The Corruption Perception Index from Transparency International measures how much people believe their governments are manipulating artificial barriers! Click Here to see

Artificial Barriers, on the other hand, are other arbitrary costs that potential producers must face before they can get to the market. Artificial barriers are not necessarily a bad thing either. These include:

  • Licensing Requirements (such as a health code license to open a restaurant)
  • Permits For Operation (very common if you need dangerous chemicals as part of your operations)
  • Licenses to Operate (some countries require a special permit to operate a business)
  • Safety Restrictions (both worker safety requirements and product safety)
  • Taxes

Artificial barriers usually exist where the welfare of your employees or customers are at risk if certain precautions are not taken (like health code certifications at restaurants, or workplace safety inspections at a factory). Unfortunately, artificial barriers are also the most likely to be manipulated when there is a high level of corruption, either by inspectors demanding bribes for permits, or by businesses pressuring governments to put up restrictions to prevent new competition from entering the marketplace.

Artificial Barriers cause the market price to increase for the goods being sold, since the producers need to pay these costs before they can even start to sell their products.

Information

In our Ice Makers example, we also said that all of the consumers had the same information about the producers. In the real world, you usually have to do some research to find out what all of  your buying alternatives are.

This means that if the consumers do not have a lot of extra time to dedicate towards researching different products and producers, they might not get the best prices.

coke logo

Building a recognizable brand is an important part of marketing

Marketing is the manipulation of information you are probably the most familiar with. Marketing serves two functions for businesses:

  1. It makes more consumers aware of their products and where to buy them. This is usually the biggest information barrier new producers face.
  2. It tries to make consumers believe their product is better than the competition. If a consumer believes one product is better than another, they might still buy it even if it costs more.

Producers will often put a lot of their resources into marketing – having a well-marketed product that consumers know how to buy can be just as important as being the cheapest or best product on the market.

Cartels and Monopolies

Not all markets have much competition. Cartels and Monopolies are the result of a breakdown in competition, either because of collusion, market dominance, or government intervention.

Cartels

A Cartel is a group of independent producers who come to an agreement (either official or unofficial) to not directly compete against each other, even though they are both in the same market. This is usually done by:

  • Agreed minimum prices
  • Agreeing only certain producers will conduct marketing in certain territories
  • Cutting prices in unison to force other producers out of the market, then re-raising to previous levels
  • Capping production levels to create an artificial shortage and raise market prices

One of the most well-known cartels is OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC members try to maintain strong oil prices to benefit their member countries, mostly by controlling the total output.

Economics In Action!
The first major anti-trust law bans: “Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade”, banning cartels that hurt the free market.

When producers within a country form a cartel, it is also called a Trust. Trusts exists mostly to just increase the profits of its members – in the late 19th century, Trusts in the steel and oil industries in the United States caused market prices to rise to much that the practice was made completely illegal.

Anti-trust laws help prevent collusion between producers to raise prices for consumers, but they can occasionally have unintended consequences. There have been several cases where some producers simply accuse larger competitors of anti-trust violation just to force them to waste resources defending themselves against the accusations.

Monopolies

A Monopoly is when a market is entirely served by a single producer, while competition is either barred completely or impractical to establish. Monopolies can arise naturally by a single producer simply forcing its competition out of business, buying any competing firms, but it more often arises from very high barriers to entry.

Monopolies almost always cause the market price for consumers to increase, because rather than comparing two alternatives with different prices, they are forced to choose “have or have not” entirely. This can also cause innovation and research to stagnate, since the monopoly no longer requires as much innovation to maintain profits.

In the United States, monopolies are usually illegal – there are many cases where large firms attempted to merge into one, only to be blocked by anti-trust laws fearing a monopoly.

Beneficial Monopolies

In some rare cases, the government will give a business the right to have a monopoly on a certain market. This happens when it is deemed that a single large producer will be able to provide better prices and quality than many producers acting independently.

Sponsored monopolies that you might be the most familiar with are public utilities like electricity and water – these producers are allowed a monopoly in certain cities and regions, but under the condition that they have limits to how much they can charge and they must uphold certain quality standards.

Another example is mining, fishing, and logging operations – governments might give exclusive rights to mine, fish, or log in a particular area to just one or very few companies in order to limit the environmental damage and avoid too much destruction taking place.

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What Is The Business Cycle?

The Business Cycle is the broad, over-stretching cycle of expansion and recession in an economy.

The Business Cycle is concerned with many things – unemployment, industrial expansion, inflation rates, but the most important indicator is GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth. Below you can see a graph of the GDP growth rate in the United States since 1946 – the grey bars highlight periods of a recession.

GDP growth

The Business Cycle can also be thought of as how Real GDP moves above and below its Potential Levels.

What Is Real GDP?

GDP, or “Gross Domestic Product”, is the total amount of finished goods and services produced in an economy during a given year (for more information, read our full article on Common Economic Indicators). If you just add up the value of all the finished goods and services in one year, you will have the Nominal GDP.

Economics In Action!
The most common way to measure inflation is the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. But there are others! Try to find other ways to calculate inflation!

Unfortunately, you cannot directly compare the Nominal GDP of one year with the Nominal GDP of another year, because the same goods and services change price over time. If we want to compare the GDP of different years, we need to adjust the Nominal GDP by the Inflation Rate. Once you adjust your Nominal GDP by the Inflation Rate between years, you have the Real GDP, which you can use to directly compare different years.

What is the Potential Level of GDP?

The “Potential Level” of GDP is the total output an economy can sustainably produce in a year.  This is the potential output if every laborer is using their skills the most efficiently, with businesses using their capital goods to the best of their design at the current levels of technology, and public institutions are operating at their peak efficiency. Every time workers learn new skills, technology increases that allows us to make new goods (or the same goods but more efficiently), or changes to the government or culture take place that promote economic growth, the Potential Level of GDP increases.

Economics In Action!
It is not possible to tell if the economy is growing above the Potential Level during an expansion, but it usually becomes obvious after a crash!

The Real GDP growth rate swings above and below the Potential GDP growth rate, which is called the Business Cycle.

Running Below Potential Levels

It is easy to see how an economy can be running below the potential levels – if workers are not matched with jobs that make the best use of their skills, or if machines are not properly maintained, or even if the government has poor leaders that make less-than-optimal laws and policies, it will cause the Real GDP growth rate to fall below the potential level. If it falls too far below, the economy could enter a Recession. Inflation is usually low when an economy is running below its potential levels.

Running Above Potential Levels

The economy can also run above Potential Levels. Remember – the Potential Level is based on what can be sustainably produced. This means that if current growth levels are the result of over-borrowing, or asset bubbles, output might actually be growing at a higher-than-sustainable rate. Economies very often run above their potential levels for short periods of time with no problems, but going too far above for too long can result in a crash. Inflation is usually higher when the economy is running above its potential, which serves to bring the Real GDP back down to its potential levels.

Expansions and Recessions

When the GDP growth rate is positive and unemployment is relatively low, it is called an Expansion. If the GDP growth rate is very low or negative, with higher unemployment, it is called a Recession.

Economic Expansions

stock broker

This part-time lifeguard would prefer to be a full-time stock broker

Most of the time, the economy is an “Expansion” phase. This does not mean everyone is doing well – even during very strong expansions, the unemployment rate usually stays around 5% (meaning 1 out of every 20 people who wants a job can’t find one), with the underemployment rate (people who are working part-time but want a better job) is usually much higher.

What an Expansion does mean is that new jobs are being created, and the total value being produced by an economy is going up. Growth also promotes growth – the more resources that are available, the more resources can be allocated towards researching new technologies and building new skills.

Economic Recessions

Recessions typically occur every 7-15 years, often following an asset bubble bursting, followed by a large loss of value in an economy. Recessions typically have higher levels of unemployment, with low or negative GDP growth. Even if GDP growth is never negative, recessions hurt. Other than GDP, the biggest indicator of a recession is a sharp decrease in consumer spending, and inflation tends to fall.

Higher unemployment rates mean that people lose their jobs, and new workers have a hard time finding their first position. Losses in the financial sector hurt retirement accounts and individual savings and investments, which can severely disrupt life plans. Thankfully, recessions are temporary, and the business cycle can usually move back into an expansion phase fairly quickly.

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What does it mean to be an Entrepreneur?

An Entrepreneur is someone who takes a risk to start a new business. Nearly every business that exists (apart those created as spin-offs of other businesses, or by government intervention) was started by one or several entrepreneurs, who took a risk to launch a new company.

Who becomes an Entrepreneur?

time risk moneyStarting and running a small business is not for everyone, partly because there is a huge amount of risk involved, and partly because it takes a huge commitment of time and resources.

Entrepreneurs are people who are willing to risk a tremendous amount of time and energy, not to mention money and other resources, to try to launch an entirely new enterprise. The potential rewards can be huge – if their business is profitable, they can keep all the profit or themselves. But the risks are also massive, since over 90% of new businesses fail within the first 5 years.

What Affects The Success Rate Of New Businesses?

failure rate

Over 90 of new start-ups go out of business within the first 5 years

Even if a person has a great business idea they would like to peruse, there are many other factors that can play a huge role in determining their success.

  • Taxes: A new business owner might not realize their entire tax burden at the end of the year, and end up with a bill they did not account for. Huge unpaid tax bills are a big reason why new business owners often need to close their doors.
  • Regulations: If you want to open a restaurant or a cafe, you will need to have certain licenses, and pass regular health code inspections. Many new business owners under-estimate the time and effort necessary to get and maintain these licenses, which drains their resources while they try to catch up.
  • Education: Most new business owners do not have a background in business. This means that the accounting and management skills necessary to run and grow their company need to be learned – if not, it can cause a business to fail very quickly.
  • Research Support: If you want to launch a new product for sale, you will probably have a large amount of research and development to do while you develop it. Some places are more friendly than others in terms of giving tax breaks and other incentives for research. Many fresh start-up companies trying to develop a new technology run out of funding before they can get their product to market.

What Benefits Are There To Starting A Business?

With the huge cost of trying, and the massive failure rate, why do so many new businesses start every year?

Long Term Growth

launch

Economics In Action!
Google, Facebook, and Microsoft were all started by University students who had a great idea and pushed forward with its development, while still in school!

Governments love new businesses, because entrepreneurs are the most likely candidates to be working hard on new research and technologies that drive long-term economic growth. New businesses are a massive source of creativity in every industry – even if your business fails, if you had a great idea that you just couldn’t bring to market, there is a good chance someone will try to acquire your technology and apply it themselves (Google is famous for encouraging start-ups that can help grow its online ecosystem).

For the entrepreneur, if your start-up is successful, the potential rewards are limitless. Since your profit is based on how successful your business is, many entrepreneurs see starting their own business as the best way to ensure they are getting paid for the value they create in the long term, rather than asking for raises and promotions while working for someone else.

Job Creation

If you start your own business, it probably won’t be long before you need to hire workers. New start-up businesses growing and hiring is one of the most effective means of job-creation.

Entrepreneurs are often more willing to hire younger and less experienced workers too, which means that joining a start-up as an employee can be a great way to launch a successful career. Of course, this comes with the risk that the company you join will fail, leaving the employees out of the job too.

One pitfall of many start-ups is hiring too many new workers too fast, anticipating growth that might not come as quickly as the owner had hoped. On the other hand, some start-ups are very afraid to hire new workers, which means that their current employees get quickly over-worked.

What Resources Exist To Help Entrepreneurs?

Nearly every state, and most cities, have some sort of program to help encourage new businesses. This can be anything from low-rent and low-tax “business incubator” zones of towns, to income tax credits, to research grants, and everything in between.

Governments, not-for-profit organizations, and even for-profit companies also run “Business Incubators”, which exist to pool the resources of many start-ups together to save cost and build skills (for example, saving cost on office space, having an accounting staff shared between all the companies in the incubator, ect).

educationMany colleges and universities also offer special course part-time courses to help teach new and potential entrepreneurs basic business skills, like basic accounting and management.

Nearly all of these programs are operated independently by local and regional businesses and governments, so if you are interested in starting a business try to find information for your area on any programs that are available.

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Definition

Economic Incentives includes anything that pushes people, businesses, and governments to do one thing or another. This includes what products you buy, what career you choose, what products businesses produce, and what government programs are put in place.

Incentives for Individuals

Each individual faces many economic incentives every day.

If you are in school, you have strong incentives to graduate – graduates (on average) earn more money and have more attractive careers than non-graduates. If you are working, you have a strong economic incentive to go to work every morning, since otherwise you might get fired (although this might not always be the case).

Incentives for individuals generally fall into two categories: “Intrinsic Incentives” and “Extrinsic Incentives“.

Intrinsic Incentives

Economics In Action!
Are you going to college? What will you study? How much of that decision is based on how much you think you’ll earn, and how much is based on what will make you happiest doing it?
Intrinsic Incentives are incentives that come from inside – your own personal tastes and preferences. In other words, “intrinsic incentives” are things that motivate you because you like or dislike them.

Intrinsic Incentives are very powerful – they dictate the kind of school we pursue, what kind of jobs we apply for, how much we work at those jobs, and much, much more. It also plays a strong role in the products we buy, where we live, and who we associate with. Simply “liking” one product more than another can often be a much more powerful factor in whether or not you buy it than its price (and marketers know this!).

Extrinsic Incentives

Extrinsic incentives are incentives that come from outside – the most common example is price. Extrinsic Incentives are just as powerful, if not more so, than intrinsic incentives – regardless of how much you want to go on vacation to the Moon, you probably can’t afford it.

Extrinsic Incentives are much easier to measure than intrinsic ones – most of economics tries to measure how changes in prices and other extrinsic factors influence the economy, and overall growth.

Tit-For-Tat

People generally react to fairness with fairness, and unfairness with retaliation. To economists, this is called “Tit for Tat”, and researchers both in economics and sociology have spent a lot of time and effort investigating this phenomenon.

Researchers in Game Theory have shown that using Tit for Tat, or reacting to kindness with kindness, and being quick to forgive unfairness, is the “winning strategy” for people playing a Prisoner’s Dilemma game.

In this game, a player is given a big reward for betraying the other player, but if both players betray at the same time, they both get no reward. If they both trust each other, they get a smaller reward. By playing this game over and over, so you know what the other player did in the last round, researchers tested a wide range of “strategies” to see what paid off most. Tit for Tat was the consistent winner.

Click Here to read more about the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

Incentives for Businesses

money

Earning profits is the primary motivation for businesses

Businesses have their own set of economic incentives – the biggest of which is turning a profit. Large corporations are owned by shareholders, and those shareholders have a primary concern that their investment remains profitable, and so there is a legal responsibility for businesses to earn as much as they can, while maintaining strong growth for the future.

This means that businesses strive to make the most profit out of what they sell as possible. This works against the individual’s incentives to buy what they need as cheaply as possible, which creates the relationship of Supply and Demand – the point where a supplier’s willingness to produce a product meets the individual’s willingness to buy it is where profit is maximized (see our article on Supply and Demand Examples in the Stock Market for details).

The incentives for profit impacts more than just prices – it also determines how much of a budget is allocated for research and development of new and improved products, and even environmental policies. If a business’s approach to the ecosystem and their community gives them a better impression to potential customers, it can lead to an increased demand for their products.

Incentives for Governments

columns

If politicians want to keep their jobs, they have an incentive to pass popular laws

The role of the government is to make life easier for the citizens, both in the short term and long term. The biggest incentives for public officials is to pass laws that benefit the most people.

This means that public officials try to pass laws that are popular, since if too many people are made unhappy, they will be voted out of office, with their laws replaced by the next set of officials. This puts an important check on government power, but it does have a drawback – it can sometimes promote policies with short-term benefits but long-term drawbacks, such as excessive borrowing that must be paid back by later generations.

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Definition

In Economics, an “Externality” is a benefit or cost that is not reflected in the price of a good or service.

Why do Externalities Exist?

Prices are determined by the relationship between the supply and demand of a good or service (for details, see our article on Supply and Demand Examples in the Stock Market). This, in turn, is determined by individual producers and consumers.

Negative Externalities

PollutionIn come cases, the direct producers and consumers are not the only ones who are impacted by a good being produced or consumed. Pollution is a good example – if a company dumps toxic waste in a local river as part of its production process, the price of cleaning it up is not reflected in their production cost.

If the full costs of cleaning up the pollution were reflected in the price, less of this good would be produced. From a societal standpoint, there is a surplus.

 

Positive Externalities

On the other hand, if a person wants to install a solar panel to their house, the total pollution put out by the electric companies is reduced. This means the air quality is higher and the entire public in the area benefits, but this benefit is not reflected in the cost of the solar panel.

If the full benefits of the solar panels were reflected in the price, more solar panels would be produced and installed. From a societal standpoint, there is a shortage.

Correcting Externalities

Governments and economies do recognize that externalities exist, and some actions are taken to account for them.

Taxes and Subsidies

Taxes and subsidies are used to try to directly add these costs and benefits directly to the products.

Economics In Action!
Punitive taxes are also used on tobacco to discourage people from smoking!
Punitive taxes are applied to goods that produce a lot of pollution, with the tax itself causing the price to go up and less to be produced/consumed, while the revenue is used to help clean up the pollution.

Subsidies are also applied to products like solar panels – the government will usually pay back the percentage of the cost of solar panels if you buy and install them on your home to help reflect the extra benefits it brings.

Quotas

If taxes and subsidies are not enough, governments can also put in place quotas, which are strict limits on how much of a good can be produced or consumed. One of the most common examples is hunting permits – people need to buy a permit to hunt, and even then they can only hunt a certain number of animals. Commercial fishers are also restricted in how many fish they are allowed to catch per season.

Both of these restrictions exist to allow animal populations to recover. That way, even if the market price for fish increases rapidly, fishing companies are still restricted in how many they can catch at a time.

Problems with Government Correction

While the government can put these restrictions in place, there is always a limit to how much can be done, and so some laws and regulations are prioritized over others.

When politicians need to choose which regulations to pass, there is a general trend to favor things that have a very large positive impact on a smaller group of influential people, at the expense of a smaller negative impact on a wider group of people.

This happens because when the negative impact is spread wide enough, most people might not even notice it at all, but the total impact on society can sometimes be worse than if there was no intervention at all.

What Does This Mean For Me?

None of these restrictions are perfect, and so each person should keep in mind the externalities, and what extra taxes, subsidies, and quotas are associated with them.

If something you want to consume has negative externalities, they are almost certainly not completely offset by any punitive taxes, so you should try to research alternatives and consider their full cost.

If there are positive externalities, it may be difficult to find information on any subsidies that might be available to you, since they can vary widely by state. If you have a more expensive alternative available for something you want to buy or use, always check to see if there are any programs available that might help offset the cost.

One starting point for your search is the Energy.Gov website, which lists many programs by state.

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What is Economic Growth?

Economic Growth means that the economy is growing – more goods and services are being produced and consumed than they were before. The most common measurement of economic growth is the Gross Domestic Product (or GDP), which measures the total number of finished goods and services produced in an economy in a year.

Why is Economic Growth important?

Economics In Action!
If there is no growth but some technology increases that gives higher productivity to workers, that means people lose their jobs, since fewer people are producing the same amount of output!
Economic growth means that more things of more value are being produced now than they were before. An increase in the total value of goods and services means that more wealth is being created, and the economy as a whole is richer (although that does not mean the wealth is distributed evenly).

Governments usually do everything they can to encourage economic growth in order to create more jobs and wealth for their citizens.

Where Does Economic Growth Come From?

Long-term economic growth comes from more workers entering the economy (either through immigration or by lowering the unemployment rate), and the output per worker increasing through higher skill levels or more advanced technology. This is called Labor Productivity.

Labor Productivity

Labor productivity is just the total output divided by the total number of workers. If this ratio goes up, that means workers have become more productive. If it goes down, it means workers have become less productive.

Skill Building

Labor productivity is increased directly by giving more workers more skills, so they are able to produce something of higher value. For example, if a construction worker learns a new technique for building a house that makes the finished building stronger but uses less materials, his labor productivity increases.

Most countries invest heavily in schools to try to increase their labor productivity. People who can read are generally able to do more work than people who cannot, so over the last 60 years governments around the world have been working hard to increase their literacy rates.

mean years of schooling

Chart showing the average number of years a student in different countries have attended school

Generally speaking, the more years of school and training a person has, the higher their labor productivity is (including training they acquire on-the-job while working). As the average skill level of a country increases, they are able to produce more and better goods and services, which leads to economic growth.

Technology

Technology also plays an important role in increasing labor productivity and driving economic growth. As new machines and techniques are invented, each person is able to produce more output in less time. This includes better tools, but also better management techniques for helping large teams of people to work together.

For example, a farmer today with a modern tractor and harvesting machines can work nearly 500 times as much land as a farmer in 1800 using horses, oxen, and hand tools, and they need to work fewer hours per day.

This means that fewer people need to be farming to produce enough food, so more people can enter other industries (like manufacturing).

Another example of this is when personal computers became widely accepted in businesses around the world. This allowed people to keep more documents and records saved in an electronic format, making them easier to read, find, and share. This, in turn, allowed companies to spend less money on paper, and more on other technologies that helped workers be more productive.paper consumption

Investment

Economics In Action!
Companies sell stock to raise cash to use on investment. If you buy a stock from a company during their IPO, they will use that cash directly to buy new office equipment, hire new employees, and invest in research and development!
Other than improving labor productivity directly through skill building and technology advancement, another important driver of economic growth is investment. Every day, people, companies, and governments choose how much of their money they will use for consumption today, and how much they will save or invest to help drive future growth.

Individuals do this by saving or investing directly in businesses. Even if you just have a savings account, your savings are used by your bank to make loans to new businesses and older businesses that want to expand, so this helps drive future growth.

Businesses do this by directing their profits back into research and development, or direct re-investment (like buying new computers).

Governments do this by reducing taxes for individuals who invest most of their income, or providing other incentives for people and companies to drive research and direct investment.

Interest Rates

One of the most direct ways that the government tries to drive growth is by managing the interest rates that bonds pay out and banks charge for loans. When interest rates are low, it makes it cheaper for people and businesses to borrow money to use for growth. There is a constant balancing act between lowering interest rates to promote growth and raising interest rates to discourage risky borrowing.

Why Is Growth Different Between Countries?

Economic growth is wildly different between countries. The reasons for this are not always clear, but the biggest factor is that countries that have a lot of resources (both a skilled labor force and advanced technology) to start with will have an easier time developing newer and better skills and technologies, giving them a head start for growth.

Poorer countries might not have the same cultural drives that help encourage growth. For example, in many places in the world, it is heavily discouraged to ever borrow money. This can make it very difficult for a new business to get the funding they need to open, and also makes it difficult for established businesses to expand.

The opposite is also true, though. A country that starts off poorer can have much faster growth, since they can take advantage of the newer technologies and techniques developed elsewhere. This can help them “catch up” to richer countries.

Even very similar countries might have very different economic growth rates, since every country has slightly different economic incentives driving how resources are allocated, different levels of research and development in different sectors of the economy, and different changes that take place inside the economy over any given year.

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Definition

A contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties (people, companies, or both) in which something of value is exchanged. One party promises to do something in return for a something else. Since a contract is legally binding, if one party does not do what was agreed upon, the other party can sue them in court to either enforce the contract or receive compensation. Contracts are involved in personal and business dealings, so it is important that you understand the rules governing them.

What Makes A Contract Binding?

Not every agreement is a binding contract, but every contract has a few required elements.

Requirement 1: Consideration

Tips To Get Rich Slowly
If you have ever seen a news article about a CEO who has a $1 salary, it is because of Consideration. He or she would not have an employment contract if the company did not have to give up something!
Consideration is the reason you are entering into a contract.  Both parties have something required of them, something they would not normally be doing except as part of the agreement. For example, Joe agrees to paint Tom’s house, and Tom agrees to pay for the service when the painting is finished. If one party agrees to do something but there is nothing required in return, this is considered a gift and not a contract.

Requirement 2: Offer and Acceptance

An offer refers to a promise one party makes in exchange for something in return by the other party.  It’s an invitation to enter into a contract based on specific terms.  An offer can be made orally or in writing.  It can be a short statement or long and detailed.  It’s important that your offer is reasonable and is clearly communicated, otherwise the party receiving the offer may not believe you are serious. 

For example, if Alice owns 10 shares of Google GOOG stock and offers to sell some of her shares to Bob, that it not a valid offer.  The offer was not clearly defined.  It would need to include how many shares Alice is offering to sell, at what price, and when Bob would receive them. 

An acceptance is when the party receiving the offer agrees to the terms being proposed.  The acceptance must be relayed in the manner that the offer specified. For example, if you received an email offer from Repair Guys to fix your car’s radiator for $550 and the offer stipulated that you must accept the offer in writing, then you would need to reply to the email showing your acceptance.  If you receive an offer and do not like the terms, you can reject the offer or you can start a new offer.  For example, if your email reply to Repair Guys stated that you would like the radiator repair to be done for $500, you are creating a new offer to which Repair Guys can accept or reject.

Requirement 3: Intent

Both parties need to actually intend to make a legally-binding contract. This might seem obvious, but this is the key difference between an informal agreement and a binding contract. For example, you might have an agreement where you mow your neighbor’s lawn for $10 a week. There’s a clear offer and clear acceptance.  But if you failed to mow the lawn one week, would your neighbor sue you? Probably not. What you created is an informal agreement, not a contract.

However, if you agreed to paint your neighbor’s house exterior for $800 by next Friday, and the neighbor has given you $200 up front to purchase paint, both parties clearly intended for a legal contract to be made. 

Requirement 4: Legal Capacity

Legal capacity means that both parties have authority under law to make a contract in the first place. In most cases, if any of the following situations apply, the party might be considered to not have legal capacity and a binding contract could not be created: 

  • Anyone under the age of 18
  • Someone who went bankrupt in the last 5 years buying something worth more than $6,000 (without telling the other party about the bankruptcy)
  • Anyone with a significant mental disability

There are exceptions to these guidelines.  For example, someone under the age of 18 can still enter a binding contract for a necessity, such as food or shelter. 

Requirement 5: No Forced Agreement

All contracts must be created through the free will of both parties.  You cannot force someone to enter into a legally-binding contract. 

Requirement 6: No Illegal Actions Required

If a contract is developed and the five previous requirements are included, your contract might still not be valid because it is asking a party to do something illegal. For example, you can’t have a legally-binding contract to sell illegal drugs.

Does A Contract Need to Be in Writing?

It depends! As long as a contract has all of the required elements, it is considered legal.  However, verbal contracts are tricky.  Unless you have witnesses to the oral contract, it is difficult to prove the contract contains all of the necessary parts.  By law, some contracts do need to be in writing, such as real estate sales.

If you want to make sure you have a legal contract, you should always get it in writing. More importantly, you should always read the full contract before signing!

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Definition

“Economics” is often called the Dismal Science – it studies the trade-offs between making choices. The purpose of economics is to look at the different incentives, assets, and choices facing people, businesses, schools, and governments, and see if there is any way to improve outcomes.

This is done by looking at how supply and demand are related throughout the economy, exploring different allocation methods, and investigating how to change (and what impacts there are from changing) the distribution of wealth.

Examining Costs and Benefits

The central problem in all economics is exploring different costs and benefits of choices made by everyone in an economy. This is not just the dollar cost of an action, but also what is being given up.

Every time a road is built in one place, that means there are not enough resources to build it somewhere else, so governments need to carefully plan construction to make sure each project gets the most possible benefit given all available alternatives. Likewise, if a school decides to build a new computer lab, they cannot use that money to hire a new teacher, do renovations on classrooms, or improve the school lunch menu.

Every choice made is a balancing act – trying to make sure the benefit you get from one action is greater than the benefit you would get from any other alternative.

Supply and Demand Throughout The Economy

At a bigger scale, when there are many people making the same kinds of decisions all at the same time, the economy as a whole also needs to balance everyone’s choices. This is how “Supply” and “Demand” appears, and how prices are determined.

For more examples on how prices are determined through Supply and Demand, read our full article on Supply and Demand Examples in the Stock Market.

Supply and Demand together are called “Market Forces“, large trends that result in one market outcome or another (such as the price of a good, and how much pollution is made in the production of those goods). When the supply and demand result in a particular number of goods to be produced and sold at a certain price, this is called a “Market Outcome“.

Market Outcomes

Economics In Action!
If you have tried to divide your practice cash between different stocks, you have tried resource allocation! It can be difficult to decide the best way to use limited resources.
Just like how different Market Forces can produce one Market Outcome, all of the different Market Outcomes in an economy will result in different “Resource Allocations“. Resource Allocations refers to everything from how many people work in coal mines, to how long (on average) students stay in school, to how much workers earn, and everything in between.

This means that all of the Market Outcomes are related – if a change in supply or demand cause the price of a good to go up, the people who make that good will earn more, and more people will start making it. This means that the income of those people goes up, which means the goods they like will have an increase in demand, and the cycle continues. The specific market outcome, and resource allocation, depends mostly on the total resources available (all raw materials, all available capital, and the entire work force number and skill level), previous market outcomes, and government policies.

Not Just Prices – Different Allocation Methods

Using “Prices” is just one of many possible ways to allocate the total resources available. Depending on what market outcome we are focused on, a different allocation method might be better or worse. Economists often try to determine what the best allocation method is for particular goods or services to try to improve market outcomes.

Market Prices

“Prices” let individuals measure their own individual level of demand against a prevailing market price – how much they have of a good or service depends on how much others are willing to make it, and how much everyone else values it. Market prices work best when there are many buyers and sellers of the same good or service. You can get more information on how market prices are determined from our article on Supply and Demand Examples in the Stock Market.

Auctions

Auctions are commonly used when there is a large imbalance between the number of potential buyers and sellers of a good or service, and the quantity available is limited. Economists spend a lot of time analyzing auction systems

For sellers, individual goods or services are left for potential buyers to “bid” on. This means that the person who values the good or service the most (in this case, who is able to pay the most) will get the good, and the seller gets the best possible price.

Auctions can also go in the other direction – a buyer could ask for sellers to “bid” to sell their good at a particular price, and the buyer will take the offer of the seller who can offer the lowest price. This is generally the case when a government hires a contractor to build a road – many competing companies provide “bids”, and the government makes its choice based on the bid price and the expected quality of the work.

Entitlements

Entitlements is a different allocation method – everyone gets a certain amount of a good or service, which is then paid for by taxes. This allocation method is generally used for “Essentials”, or otherwise things where it is impossible to charge someone based on their usage. The availability of public parks, drinking water, and clean air all use an “Entitlement” distribution system. Certain levels of basic housing and food is also generally provided as an Entitlement.

Price Controls

Even in a normal supply and demand system, price controls can be put in place by the government if a society is not satisfied with the pure market price allocation. This can be things like adding extra taxes to increase the price, giving subsidies to decrease the price, or telling sellers they can’t sell a good or service above or below certain prices.

Changing The Distribution Of Wealth

The distribution of wealth is more complicated than just how much the top 1% earn compared to the bottom 99% – it also examines how wealth is distributed between industries in an economy, how much different skill levels are worth relative to others, how taxes are paid and collected, and much more. When economists look at changes in the distribution of wealth, it is usually by making subtle changes to these smaller factors which add up to changes on a bigger scale, rather than trying to find a single way to transfer wealth from the “Rich” to the “Poor”.

Taxes and Transfers

Economics In Action!
These are also called “Robin Hood Taxes”. There is a huge amount of debate as to how much they help – or hurt – the poor in the long run.
Taxes and Transfers refers to the last point – taking money directly from the rich through taxes, and refunding that money directly to the poor through a subsidy or other transfer. This is the most blunt way to change the distribution of wealth, but it also has the largest implication for the total market allocation in an economy.

For example, the Rich use most of their income for investment, while the Poor use almost all of it for direct consumption. This is because the rich generally don’t get much benefit out of an extra $100 worth of groceries in a month, but that might be a very large boost in living standards for the poor.

By giving a single rich person an extra $10,000 in taxes, and using that revenue to give $100 directly to 100 people, those 100 people will almost certainly be made much better off than the one rich person was made worse off. However, that means that $10,000 would not be invested to help new companies grow, which in turn means fewer jobs are created to help build new wealth. A central problem of economics is trying to balance the consumption and benefit of people today against taking measures to help more growth for the future.

Government Spending

Economics In Action!
Economists use interest rates to try to compare present benefits against future benefits. For example, you might give up $100 today for $120 dollars a year from now, but maybe $101 is not worth the wait.
Economists also try to influence the distribution of wealth through government spending. This includes things choosing to use government money between giving grants to start-up businesses to create new jobs, or using that money to give scholarships to students to get a college education. Both outcomes are directed towards growth, but it is challenging to determine how to balance different spending alternatives to encourage different kinds of growth.

Another example comes from direct government spending – some countries spend a large amount of money on biotechnology research to build a new sector of their economy, while other countries spend more on building more public housing connected to public transit, to try to help the poor get better jobs in economic sectors that already exist.

Every part of economics is measuring these trade-offs – the benefits and costs of one choice versus another.

Pop Quiz!

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Have you ever wanted to start a business? Maybe you want to know the difference between a lemonade stand and Minute-Maid, besides just the size of the companies.

Different types of companies have different levels of liability (meaning level of responsibility) for the owner or owners. What this means is that the more liability an owner has, the more that owner is responsible for the company’s debts. Different types of businesses also have different rules on how they can be managed, and how the owners can be paid.

Sole Proprietorship

Sole ProprietorshipThis is the simplest type of business – the entire business is owned by one person. There generally are no requirements to operate a sole proprietorship – if you ever sold something, you have already worked as a sole proprietor.

Sole proprietorships can have many employees, but the key factor is that the business itself is owned by just one person.

Ownership Liability

In a sole proprietorship, the owner takes the full liability for the entire company’s debt. That means that if, for example, the owner took out a loan to start the business but then goes bankrupt, he or she could have their other assets seized by creditors (such as their car or home).

This also means that if someone wants to sue the business, they can also just sue the owner directly (even if the business has already closed).

Most larger businesses don’t want to always have that much liability, so usually as businesses get larger, they tend to move on from sole proprietorships into other business types.

Owner Compensation

With a sole proprietorship, everything that is owned by the company is owned directly by its owner. This means that most owners can (and usually do) mix their personal finances and business finances. An example of this would be taking money directly from your cash register to buy your personal groceries.

This means that the owner keeps 100% of the profit from the business for him or her self, and reports all the income, profit, and loss on their own personal taxes.

“Doing Business As”

A sole proprietor may still want to register a company name (although this is optional), which they can then use for bank accounts and legal paperwork. This is known as “doing business as” another name, and the rules vary by state. In this case, the sole proprietor still has unlimited liability, but can use another name for their business.

Partnerships

Partnership“Partnerships” exist when two or more people decide to run a business together. There are “General Partnerships” and “Limited Partnerships”.

Unlike a sole proprietorship, a partnership requires a contract in order to exist, where the partners establish the existence of the partnership. Like a sole proprietorship, the owners still own the entire company themselves, along with all its profits (and losses), and the partners can choose to use a “Doing Business As” name.

General Partnerships

With a general partnership, the business works just like a sole proprietorship, but with several owners instead of just one.

Ownership Liability

All of the partners are fully liable for the entire business, just like a sole proprietorship. Partners are also liable for the actions of their other partners any time one of them is acting on behalf of the business.

For example, if you have a partnership that sells stereos, and your partner agrees to sell them at $1 each, you are obligated to honor that agreement.

Ownership Compensation

All of the profits and losses are divided equally between the partners (although in the initial contract, the partners can specify that one gets a greater share than the others).

Limited Partnerships

Limited PartnershipWith a “Limited” partnership, there is at least one general partner, plus at least one “Limited Partner”. The limited partner does not have all the rights, responsibilities, and obligations as the general partner, but also does not share the full liability either.

Ownership Liability

The general partner has the same liability has the same rights as a general partnership, but the limited partner has somewhat less (usually only as much as they invested in the company to start with). This also means that the general partner might not be liable for the agreements made by the limited partner, if he or she can show that those actions were “negligent” or purposely harmful.

Ownership Compensation

The limited owner usually has their compensation set to the same restrictions as their liability – there might be a cap to how much they can “take out” of the business. The specific rules depend on the terms in the partnership contract.

Why A Company Might Have A Limited Partnership

Limited partnerships are very common – even more common than general partnerships. A limited partnership will often occur when one person wants to start a business, but gets help (both financial and practical) from someone else. Rather than offering a loan, this “helper” might instead want to share in the future profits of the business, so they would prefer becoming a limited partner.

As a limited partner, they might not have a role in the day-to-day management of the company, but they might still have a role in the overall “vision” and the direction of the company. They also do get a share of all profits, but since they have limited liability, they are not risking their own personal assets (beyond what they specifically invested in the company), unlike a General Partner.

Corporations

CorporationThe biggest type of business is a corporation. These operate under different rules from sole proprietorships and partnerships – a Corporation is its own legal entity (meaning it can have its own bank accounts, and be sued directly). Corporation’s most useful feature (as far as the owners are concerned) is totally limited liability, but this comes at a high cost of management and organization.

Corporations can sell pieces of their ownership as stock. This allows a corporation to raise a large amount of cash to invest in new equipment and operations, which can help companies become profitable much sooner.

Ownership

When a corporation is created, it exists with a certain number of shares of stock. Whoever holds those shares is a part owner in the company – how much they own is based on how many shares they hold.

Instead of the company being managed directly by the owners (like a sole proprietorship or partnership), the shareholders then elect a “Board of Directors”. The day-to-day management of the company is overseen by the Board, but for some larger decisions there are occasionally calls for each stockholder to vote. The Board of Directors is also responsible for hiring and firing the highest levels of management (like the CEO), and the Board is the direct “boss” of those managers.

Ownership Liability

The owners of the company (stockholders) have entirely “limited” liability – they can only lose as much as their stock is worth. This means that if a Corporation goes bankrupt, the individual stockholders will lose the entire value of their stock, but nothing more.

Ownership Compensation

The shareholders of a corporation are entitled to the company’s profits, which are paid out as dividends. Read our full article on Stocks for more information.

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Knowing your net worth is the first step towards growing it! This tool will help you organize your assets in one place, and even help project how they will grow in the future.

If you have used our Home Budget Calculator to help see where you can improve your savings, the next step is measuring your net worth to see how to make it grow.

Once you have found your net worth, you can use our Saving to be a Millionaire Calculator to see what rate of return you need to reach to hit your savings goals!

Make sure you click the VIEW REPORT button below!

Javascript is required for this calculator. If you are using Internet Explorer, you may need to select to

‘Allow Blocked Content’ to view this calculator.


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Congratulations! You made it through the basic investing course unscathed, armed, and ready to begin a long, successful investment career. You have enough information to begin with some confidence. Remember, you can test your personal investment strategy using the real world simulation. You’ll get all the excitement and results you’d achieve in the market – without risking any of your investment funds.

Remember, you’ve reached the end of this trip, but not THE journey. Keep practicing and constantly improving your personal knowledge base. You will learn which investment types work for you and which do not. Analyze your losses just as diligently as you do your winners.

Enjoy your investment career and the journey as much as the results.

Mark's Tip
Mark

You now have the tools you need to start investing your real money. Start slowly and only invest in something if you fully understand it and don’t hesitate to take the first couple profits that you make. It will build your confidence. Email me at mark@investing101.net and let me know how you are doing or if you have any questions about this course.


Developing a workable investing strategy – and sticking to it through its high and low points – is the major component of your overall action plan. You need to create an investing strategy that is “comfortable” for you. If it doesn’t fit you, you won’t stick to it. Here are some proven ways to select a strategy that works for you:

  • Understand who you are and who you are not.
  • Understand the true state of your financial fitness. Adopting a strategy popular with the world’s largest investors will do little to help you if your investment fund is less than $5,000. Be honest and create a strategy that makes sense.
  • Be brutally honest when evaluating your current economic situation. While staying positive is always a benefit, evaluation of yourself must be just as objective as your analysis of companies and potential investments. At a minimum, consider the following factors
    • Your current age
    • Your asset position: What assets and available cash do you have?
    • Your debt position: How much do you owe?
    • Current income and cash flow: How much do you make from all income sources?
    • Current expenses: How much do you need to spend monthly?
    • Your savings plan: How much can you save regularly?
  • Your retirement plans: How much do you think you’ll need to retire comfortably? Use a retirement calculator to give you some guidance
  • Age Average Net Worth
    Under 25 $9,660
    25-29 $37,229
    30-34 $136,629
    35-39 $298,500
    40-44 $491,100
    45-49 $690,090
    50-54 $702,552
    55-59 $1,123,000
    60-64 $1,507,000
    65-69 $2,294,492
    70-74 $2,546,213
    75 and over $2,734,001

    Evaluate your financial situation as compared to the statistics for average net worth for different age groups.

  • Be aware of recommended asset allocations for portfolios of different age ranges to help guide your investment strategy.

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Use this and other information you accumulate to construct an investing strategy that fits your finances, personality, and economic goals. You will make better decisions, enjoy your investment activities, and improve your chances of reaching your financial goals.


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Like all good athletes, musicians, actors, and astronauts, the word “practice” is central to performance success. The newer investor should adopt this action plan. Just as few people are born knowing how to hit a baseball or play the piano, successful investors are made, not born.

Your investment education should not stop with this course. Continue your education process and learn from your mistakes as you proceed.

You should have already have started trading in your practice portfolio – if you haven’t, its not too late to start!


Even if you start out as a “buy and hold” investor, staying informed at all times is a critical component to your investment career. Should you be tempted to walk the ever-exciting and dangerous tightrope of day trading, your stream of current information is even more important.

Here are some suggestions that will keep you informed, knowledgeable, and ready to make excellent investment decisions. Your portfolio – and your bank account – will thank you.

Investment Newsletters

You will have many choices of investment newsletters. Don’t be afraid to sign up for the free ones (from legitimate companies), and don’t hesitate to unsubscribe if you get too many or you don’t like their approach. There are so many free and valuable newsletters out there, but here are some of the ones we like:

Some you will love, while others might bore or confuse you. As a newer investor, you should sample these newsletters and find the ones you like and enjoy. Cancel those that make you crazy or offer no value.
Stick with the basics for now. As your knowledge increases and you become more comfortable with the terms and tips you’ve learned in this course, you may want to upgrade the level of information from those newsletters and I am sure you will find others that you like.

Money Management Techniques

You’ve learned some wonderful money management techniques through this course. However, there are other, more sophisticated techniques and new ideas that are published on a regular basis. Surf the web to stay up-to-date and/or learn about new, cutting-edge money management techniques that might help you make even better decisions.

Don’t worry, money management ideas need not be complicated. Most depend more on common sense than mathematics or strange-looking formulae. Stay informed with money management strategies that work for YOU.

  • Over-diversification. Sure, every expert with a pencil, computer, or microphone keeps telling you to diversify your portfolio. They are right, but they often neglect to tell you the rest. For example, assume you only have $200 to invest. You buy 40 different stocks at $5 each. Guess what? Now you’re too “thin” and you have racked up enormous trading fees that start your portfolio at a substantial loss. Even if one or two stocks skyrocket, they won’t make a real difference in your portfolio since they hold a relatively small position in your overall portfolio. 15 to 20 diversified stocks should be plenty and you can have as few as 10 if you are well diversified.
  • Becoming a “Trader.” Compile a list of the best investors in the world and you probably won’t find even one who engages in frequent day trading. Smart investing does not equal constant intra-day trading. Even if you have early success as a day trader, the odds, the tax code and the markets are all stacked against you. Like a casino “winner” at Las Vegas, the markets know that the longer you play the day trading game, the better chance you have of losing and giving back all your winnings, and then some. A “buy and hold” investor like Warren Buffet would gladly tell you that you’re crazy to adopt a trader’s strategy.
  • Disregarding “time horizons.” Here is a simple example from the banking world. You have $1,200 to invest. You decide that, for an extra quarter percent interest, you’ll put it all in a 5-year CD. However, you need $400 in 6 months. You need to withdraw that amount and forfeit all interest earned. In one year, interest rates spike upward and your remaining 5-year CD is earning well below market rates. You’ve disregarded the investment timeline and it’s cost you money. If you are buying a car soon, or a house in a few years, or you have children that you need to send to college, you need to have a plan to make sure you have the cash available when you need it.
  • Making investment decisions based on emotions. Your former superstar stock dropped 10 percent today and you’re in a panic. Relax and do nothing while in this state of mind. Place your laptop where it belongs: In your lap. Investigate the reasons for the decline. You might find that, instead of dumping this stock, you might want to buy more. A funny thing about Wall St. is that it’s the only place on Earth that when there’s a “sale” on the product, people run away.
  • Paying too much for investment advice. Many investors, particularly newer ones, overpay for investment services. Feeling that you need full-service brokers is understandable, but the service is usually unnecessary. First, all fees are negotiable. Second, if you’re doing your homework, you can make your own investment decisions. Third, if you’re always dependent on the investment advice of someone else, you’re never truly free and in control of your life. Learn how to invest for yourself and you’ll never have to depend upon costly investment advice!
  • Impatience that leads to paying too much for your investments. Do you know the “key” to successful retailing (think shoes, computers, toys, clothing, etc.)? Listen closely: It’s not how much you sell it for, rather it is what it costs you that affects profitability. You can’t predict the future to see when and how much you will sell something for, but you can certainly control the cost. The same is true for investing. The selling price is much harder to predict than the purchase price. Only pay a fair price for your investments. Don’t “chase” a stock price higher and let greed get a hold of you. Remember: new investment opportunities always come around if your current one has escaped you by rising out of your price range.
  • Assuming that the future looks like the past. This is a common mistake made by many newer and casual investors. They assume that current earnings will continue and project future earnings at the same or higher level. For example, a consistently mediocre company has a wonderful year. Investors automatically assume the company has found the “secret” to profitability. Once again, adopt a critical, independent viewpoint. Assume nothing. Do the research and learn if they’ve found the “secret” or if they were just lucky in one year.
  • Unrealistic expectations. Avoid setting unrealistic or impossible expectations for any investment. It clouds your judgment, generates bad buy/sell decisions, and erodes your confidence. Be realistic with your performance projections and see the long road of a lifetime of investing decisions.
  • Suffering paralysis by analysis. You understand that you should be an independent investor, do your own research, and make smart, personal evaluations. However, many newer investors spend too much time exercising their newfound skills. In fact, they love the research and debate so much that they forget to actually do it and get in the game. A fast moving market can make analysis paralysis a costly mistake. Your aim can be perfect, but if you can’t pull the trigger, you’ll never hit your target.
  • Lack of a plan or a strategy. Becoming an investor will seldom be a successful experience if you don’t have a working plan and some type of strategy. You may as well just buy lottery tickets or visit your favorite casino (at least you might enjoy a wonderful dinner). The level of sophistication of your plan and strategy is not important. The fact that you have one is critical. A failure to plan is a plan to fail. Think about the many different investment strategies offered in this course and try one risk-free using fantasy money first on your virtual account.


Here are ten important things to remember as you take the next step in your investing journey. These are real world keys that you should embed into your conscious brain to help you become a consistently smart or profitable investor.

  1. Understand and control the fees and costs of your investing activities. Ask your broker how they charge for stock and option trades. Shop around and try other brokerages. Don’t be shy. You must find a brokerage and platform with which you feel comfortable.In addition to brokerage commissions, be aware of and minimize advisory charges (if you choose to use an investment advisor), mutual fund loads (buying and selling), expense fees for ETFs, the tax consequences (always keep your tax adviser in the loop) of your investing, and closely monitor the overall rate of inflation, which can eat into or destroy your apparent profits.
  2. Diversify, diversify, and then diversify. Have you heard that before? Typically, the best way to accomplish this goal is to create a good asset mix. Some people think they have diversified if they have many different stocks in their portfolio, but nothing else. This is not true diversity. The assets are all the same.Make sure in your real portfolio that you have a mix of bonds (corporate and U.S. Treasury), commodities like gold and silver bullion, and international stocks/bonds as well. Also, consider the important time component. Along with the obvious (timing a bond’s maturity date correctly), you should consider assets that project to appreciate at different times and plan accordingly.
  3. Understand your risk. No, really understand your total risk. You may have a clear picture of the relative risk associated with each investment you purchase. However, have you considered the related risks between investments? For example, what is the source of your cash flow with which you live? Are you an employee or a self-employed businessperson? Have you considered what may happen if your cash flow were to stop? Would you be forced to sell your investments before you wanted to?This risk to your portfolio has just greatly increased if you never considered it before. This risk may one day force you to lose money by selling at the wrong time. Many investors have been forced to sell their investments at market lows because they had no other choice – they needed the cash!

    You might also be unable to make other timely purchases during a market low because of your lack of cash flow. This is just one example of the additional risks that you might easily overlook when creating your investment strategy.

  4. Understand percentages. Don’t look at how much the price of an investment went up or down in dollars and cents or “points” – look at its percentage gained or lost. Like casinos that issue worthless plastic chips in order to more easily separate you from your money, you must understand the value of each asset you are holding and understand how much each price change impacts your overall portfolio value.The easiest way to understand how investments are changing in value daily, weekly, monthly or yearly is through percentages. Google (GOOG) went up $5 today and your General Electric (GE) stock went up 50 cents – which performed better for you? That’s a 1% return for GOOG but a 3% return for GE! Further, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 500 points today for a 5% gain, why did your GOOG and GE underperform the market? Pay attention to the percentage changes in all of your assets and compare them to common market benchmarks!
  5. Avoid buying “hot” stocks, rather you should invest in what you know. Surprised? By the time a stock is considered “hot,” you’ll probably pay too much for it. The amount of press and TV time they command often attract many investors on the buy side, which drives the price up to possibly dangerous “bubble” levels. If you like a hot stock or investment, wait a few weeks or a month to revisit the security. By then, it has probably been replaced by a new “hot” stock and may now be priced more attractively.A better method of investing is to buy what you know. Open your eyes and look to see where you and your friends are spending your money—and where you are NOT! Your own personal and professional knowledge of companies and their products is usually more than enough evidence for you to start doing some fundamental research on their stocks. Investors who stick to what they know and ignore what they don’t know have made many fortunes.
  6. Use Fundamental Analysis to identify what to buy. Fundamental analysis is a first step in researching possible investments: For stocks, what are the company’s PE ratio, product lineup, and management? For CDs and bonds, where is the overall economy in the business cycle; what are bank CDs and bonds yielding? For commodities, what is in demand now and what will be in high demand in the future for assets like Oil, Gold, and Wheat? This will tell you what is currently undervalued, what is overvalued and what the future is likely to bring for these investments.
  7. Use Technical Analysis to help you decide when to buy. While Fundamental analysis can tell you what to buy, Technical analysis tells you when to buy. After all, what’s the point in making an investment and having to wait 20 years before you make money and your fundamental analysis is proven correct?That’s why technical analysis indicators like price action and volume play key roles in your life as an investor. Common chart patterns and trend lines will easily guide you in knowing when to buy and when to sell investments that your fundamental research has told you are solid places to invest your money. Technical analysis works not because it is a secret, but because every good investor knows about it, uses it and follows it.
  8. Set reasonable goals and know that if you outperform the market by 5% then you are doing great! Understand that it is really difficult to beat the market as measured by a benchmark like the S&P 500. Like a fruitless attempt at achieving perfection, constant striving to “double your money in a year” will bring you disappointment. Instead, create a strategy and portfolio that suits the amount of money you have to invest, protects you against downside surprises, projects returns higher than inflation, and “gives you comfort.” Create a realistic investing goal that is achievable. Remember that over 90% of professional mutual fund managers fail to beat the S&P 500 stock market index. You shouldn’t expect to beat it either, at least not right out of the gate.
  9. Be objective, not emotional. FEAR and GREED are your enemies. These two emotions can be seen in every market, every day. They drive markets up and down and make them gyrate without seeming to make sense. That’s fear and greed at work.When you start to become emotional about your investments, your previously successful portfolio can be turned into a train wreck. Understand that objective investing is always the smartest strategy component. Have solid reasons and goals for making every investment decision and ask yourself: is greed or fear is playing a role? And stick to your plan!
  10. Be an independent thinker. This is easier said than done and sometimes can take a lifetime of experience before you achieve it. However, if you interviewed the top ten investors on the planet, all would stress that you must invest independently. This doesn’t mean you should totally disregard all suggestions from your broker, other experts, friends, or family. It does suggest that you view all such recommendations with a careful, critical eye.Do your own research, investigation, and evaluation – remember, it’s your money. Treat recommendations, regardless how strong they seem, as just another information source – not a fierce call to action. One way to become an independent thinker is by reading many different opinions and then coming up with your own opinion based upon the facts that you can see.

Summary

Options are exciting investment “vehicles,” but to be used profitably, you need to understand what they mean and what they can or cannot do for you. You have now scratched the surface of the option world.

You’ve now reached a level that gives you some ammunition and skills to play the basic options game. You have some valuable tools that give you the chance to win, too.

Glossary

The Black-Scholes Model:
The most generally accepted option pricing model.
Call Option:
The right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a certain price before the expiration date.
Covered Call:
Writing/selling a call option on a stock that you currently own.
Expiration Date:
The date that the option expires, usually the 3rd Friday of the month in the U.S.
Naked Call:
Writing/selling a call option on a stock that you do NOT currently own.
Put Option:
The right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a certain price before the expiration date.
Strike Price:
The price at which the option contract can be executed.
Time Decay:
The reduction in an option price that occurs over time due to the reduced chance of a big price movement in the underlying stock.

Further Reading

Exercise

In your virtual trading account:

  • buy a call option on a stock that you think is going to go up
  • buy a put option on a stock that you think is gong to go down
  • write an out-of-the-money covered call on a stock that you have in your portfolio and see if it expires worthless
  • buy a put on a stock that you have a profit on and try to lock in those profits

Options are an important instrument for many traders, and to understand options you need to understand options tables and learn how to read option tables!

Depending on the software or website you use, the actual information may vary, but all tables have these basic sets of information:

Calls Puts Strike Vol Expiry Last Chg Bid Ask Open Int Symbol

Calls: This will show whether the option being looked at it is a call (gives the option to buy at a future date)

Puts: This will show whether the option being looked at is a put (gives the option to sell at a future date)

Strike: The strike price is the price at which we can exercise the option. For example, a call option with a strike price of 50 will allow to buy the stock at $50 instead of the current price.

Vol: The Volume works the same as stocks. It is the amount of option contracts that have been traded (Note: options contracts are always for the 100 options! So when you buy 1 option contract you are actually buying 100 options to call or put the underlying stock!)

Expiry: This is the month, day, and year that the option expires. At option expiry you will either get the your profit if you are “in the money” or your options will be worthless if you are “out of the money”.

Last: The last traded price, just like with stocks.

Chg: The change in price from the open to the last price, just like with stocks.

Bid: The price you get when you buy an option.

Ask: The price you get when you sell an option.

Open Int: This indicates the open interest or number of outstanding options contracts.

Symbol: There are many different ways that option symbols are shown, but the symbol is based on the underlying stock, the strike price, and the expiration date. Here is one of the more used symbols:

GE150821C00018000

To understand what this symbol is telling us, we need to break it into parts:

GE150821C00018000

These are what each part means:

GE: This is the symbol of the underlying stock
150821: This is the expiration date: “15” as the year, “08” as the month, and “21” as the day. Now we know this option expires on August 21, 2015
C: This tells us whether this is a “Call” or “Put” option. C stands for Call, P for Put
00018000: The last part is the Strike Price. The rightmost 3 digest are the decimal values (all options go down to tenths of cents, so there are 3 decimal places shown), so we know that this option’s strike price is $18.

Put it all together, and we know this is the symbol for a GE Call stock that expires on August 21, 2015, with a strike price of $18. Similarly, MFST170123P00008275: Would be a Microsoft 2017 January 23rd expiry Put with a strike price of 8.275$.


Put and call interest does not involve the banking definition of interest, but the market excitement – or lack thereof – regarding puts or calls for a security. Before you start thinking we’ve all lost our analytical minds, try to understand that market prices for stocks and put/ call options The right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a certain price before the expiration date. are not totally based on sophisticated mathematical formulae and superior financial modeling software.

Just as the market adopts a Bull or Bear mentality for either good or undefined reasons, it reacts similarly to put and call options for different securities. Even if you spend hours at your laptop computer analyzing all available scientific data, the “mood” of the market must still be factored into your investment decisions, including buying or selling options.

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For example, you’re considering call options on a few securities. You learn that much of the market is not in favor of these options on these stocks. On one hand, this may mean you can make beneficial deals on these options, as the “option price” will be lower than you thought. However, you also need to consider the reasons for this lack of popularity.

Might it affect the strength of your future purchase price on the negative side? Or, are you simply making a wise option purchase that might mean higher profits for you? Are there many more put than call options? Does the market, as a whole, believe the stock price will decline? Are their conclusions legitimate? Are they wrong, based on your analysis?

Interest, in this sense, is important for you to consider. It should not “dictate” your decision to execute a put or call option. However, you should consider the interest level in both put and call options as an indicator, along with your other evaluations, of what a stock might do, which is either increase or decrease.

The Put verses call interest can also be used to measure market sentiment overall. When more investors are buying calls than puts, sentiment about stocks is generally bullish and they believe stocks will rise in the future. When more investors are buying puts, this indicates a bearish sentiment that stocks will fall. The historical average for investors to buy Puts verses Calls is, not surprisingly, about equal, for a 1 to 1 ratio.


chapter9-8a Any discussion of options and option prices would be incomplete without a mention of the Black-Scholes The most generally accepted option pricing model. option pricing model.

Academics Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, in a paper they authored in 1973, stated their theory that an option was implicit to the pricing of any traded security.

Referencing the work of some of the most famous economists, like Paul Samuelson, Black and Scholes developed not one, but three “positions” for your consideration.

Unless you are a dedicated and hopeless mathematician, you need only know how the work of Black-Scholes might affect your investment activities. While many experts state the limitations of this theory, you might adopt the predictions and projections offered by Black-Scholes calculations to help your options activity.

The Black Scholes formula is used for obtaining the price of European put and call options. It is obtained by solving the Black–Scholes PDE – see derivation below.

Using this formula, the value of a call option in terms of the Black–Scholes parameters is:

chapter9-8b

The price of a put options The right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a certain price before the expiration date. is:

chapter9-8b

For both, as above:

  • N(•) is the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution
  • T – t is the time to maturity
  • S is the spot price of the underlying asset
  • K is the strike price The price at which the option contract can be executed.
  • r is the risk free rate (annual rate, expressed in terms of continuous compounding)
  • σ is the volatility in the log-returns of the underlying

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All you need to know is that many option trading websites will now show you the Black-Scholes pricing calculation so you can gain a sense of the reasonableness of the option price.


Often used in relation to options, implied volatility is a calculation that compares the current market price of a stock with the theoretical value of the market price in the future, all to predict the true value of an option. This may sound like a risky probability equation – and it is – yet it’s based on sound factual history and intelligent projections for the near future.

Once again, volatility is basically a “neutral” measurement, not an indication of a “good” or “bad” condition or decision. As a measurement (or, in this case, predictor) of “movement,” you must remember that movement may occur in either (up or down) direction. As an investor, you must consider the volatility of different securities when making decisions, particularly with options, either calls or puts.

Implied volatility can affect buyers and sellers of both types of options (put or call), therefore affecting the price you pay or receive for the purchase or sale of options. High implied volatility might cost you more on the buy or sell side, as the other party will incur more uncertainty and risk, projected or real. However, as long as you are aware of this factor, you can price your decisions accordingly, and count on the buyer/seller of the asset to do the same.

Implied volatility plays a large part in the pricing models used to sell options and until recently, the pricing of options was a largely haphazard affair of traders who came up with prices on their own…until the Black-Scholes The most generally accepted option pricing model. model was developed, which we’ll look at next…


chapter9-6aVolatility is a concept that involves all stocks and other securities. For good reasons, high volatility is most often viewed as a negative in the investment world since rapid movements in market prices inherently involve both wins and losses. In investment language, volatility implies two scary conditions for you: uncertainty and risk.

For example, if you are smart (lucky) enough to buy at a stock’s “bottom,” positive volatility (a rapid price rise) could generate wonderful profits for you. Negative volatility, on the other hand, could make you less than pleased as the price of a stock swiftly falls.

Avoid a common misunderstanding that volatility also equals a trend up or down. It does not. Volatility is neither good nor bad, nor does it automatically indicate a trend. It simply measures the speed of price movement.

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Everyone likes volatility to the upside (when the market rises quickly), but rarely to the downside (when the market is crashing).

As you’ll see, volatility is a key component in pricing options since the option writer has a great deal of interest in the likelihood of a large price swing (up or down) in the underlying security.

The general indicator for volatility in the stock market is called the VIX index and it measures the premium that options writers assign to stock market volatility. The VIX index is often called the “fear index” because the VIX will rise when the stock market is falling which simply reflects the higher premium option writers are demanding when they write put options The right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a certain price before the expiration date. as investors scramble to buy insurance policies (put options) for their stocks.

Historically, the VIX has been in a range between 10 and 20, but during the rocky stock market swoon in late 2008 and 2009, the VIX was more frequently in the 20- 30 range and even hit a high of 90 in October 2008 when investors feared the world was ending and the financial system was said to be at the brink of collapse.

chapter9-6b

The important thing to remember about the VIX is, when it is high, options become expensive to buy as the implied volatility in the options price rises. We’ll look at implied volatility next…


chapter9-5aWe noted earlier that 35% of option buyers lose money and that 65% of option sellers make money. Option trading comes down to the turtle and the hare story. Option buyers are the rabbits that are generally looking for a quick move in stock prices, and the option sellers/writers are the turtles that are looking to make a few dollars each day.

In the YHOO examples above we said that if YHOO is at $27 a share and the October $30 call is at $0.25, then not many option traders expect YHOO to climb above $30 a share between now and the 3rd Friday in October. If today was October 1st and you owned 100 shares of YHOO, would you like to receive $25 to give someone the right to call the stock away from you at $30? Maybe, maybe not.

But if that October $30 call was currently trading at $2 and you could get $200 for giving someone the right to call you stock away at $30, wouldn’t you take that? Isn’t it very unlikely that with only a few weeks left to expiration that YHOO would climb $3 and your YHOO stocks would be called away? In effect, you would be selling your shares for $32 (the $30 strike price The price at which the option contract can be executed. plus the $2 option price).

Option sellers write covered calls Writing/selling a call option on a stock that you currently own. as a way to add income to their trading accounts by receiving these little premiums each month, hoping that the stock doesn’t move higher than the strike price before expiration. If the October calls expire worthless on the 3rd Friday in October, then they immediately turn around and sell/write the November calls.

When you own the underlying stock and write the call, it is called writing a “covered” call. This is considered a relatively safe trading strategy. If you do not own the underlying stock, then it is called writing a “naked” call. This is considered a very risky strategy, so don’t try this at home!

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The reason that option sellers/writers usually win on their trades is they have one very important factor on their side that the option buyer has working against them—TIME. If today is October 1st and YHOO is at $27 and we write the YHOO $30 call to receive $2.00, we have 21 days to hope that YHOO stays below $30. Each day that goes by and YHOO stays below $30, it becomes less and less likely that YHOO will pop over $30. so the option price starts decreasing. On October 10th, if YHOO is still at $27 then the October $30 call would probably be trading at $1.10 or so. This is called the “time decay The reduction in an option price that occurs over time due to the reduced chance of a big price movement in the underlying stock.” of options in that each day that goes by the odds of a price movement become less and less. This is the turtle winning the race!


Now that you have a high level understanding of what options are, let’s look at option trading in a little more detail. When you get a quote on a stock you can also call up its option chain:

chapter9-4a

First of all, you must realize that not all stocks have options. Only the most popular stocks have options.

Second, you cannot always buy the strike price The price at which the option contract can be executed. that you want for an option. Strike prices are generally in intervals of $5. So if YHOO is trading in the $30 range, it might have strike prices of $20, $25, $30, $35, and $40. Occasionally, you will find $22.5 and $27.5 available for the more popular stocks.

Third, you will not always find the expiration month you are looking for in an option. Usually you see the expiration months for the closest two months, and then every 3 months thereafter.

Fourth, even if you do find the option you are looking for, you need to make sure it has enough volume trading on it to provide liquidity so that you can sell it in the open market, if you decide to. Most options are thinly traded and therefore have a high bid/ask spreads.

Finally, you need to understand where option prices are coming from. If YHOO is trading at $27 a share and you are looking at the October $30 call option, the price is determined just like a stock—totally on a supply and demand basis in an open market. If the price of that option is $0.25, then not many people are expecting YHOO to rise above $30; and if the price of that option is $2.00, then you know that a lot of people are expecting that option to rise above $30.

As you might expect, option prices are a function of the price of the underlying stock, the strike price, the number of days left to expiration, and the overall volatility of the stock. While the first 3 of these (stock price, strike price, and days to expiration) are easily agreed upon, it is the volatility and the expected volatility of the stock that traders differ in opinion and therefore drives prices.

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When buying options, you need to be able to calculate your break-even point to see if you really want to make a trade. If YHOO is at $27 a share and the October $30 call is at $0.25, then YHOO has to go to at least $30.25 for you to breakeven. This is because when YHOO is at $30.25, then you know that the $30 call is “in-the-money” $0.25 so it is worth at least $0.25 (your cost of the option). Likewise, if the October $30 call is $2.00, then YHOO has to climb to at least $32.00 for you to breakeven (when YHOO is at $32, then the $30 call is “in-the-money” $2.00 and it will be worth at least $2.00.)

Now let’s look at a specific example so this starts making sense. Let’s say we have done our analysis on IBM (IBM) and we think IBM will go from $84 to $87 in the next few days. Because we think IBM will go up, we want to buy a call and since option strike prices are in multiples of $5, I could buy the $80 call, the $85 call, or the $90 call. Note from Table 1 below that the IBM April $85 Call has the greatest percentage return.

Scenario 1

Buy 100 Shares of Stock and 1 Contract of Each of the $80, $85, and $90 Calls and IBM Closes at $87.

chapter9-4b

Notice in Table 1 that we spent $8,400 on the stock position and we spent very little on the options. Now in the Table 2 below, we go ahead and invest the same initial amount in options as in the stock so we spend $8,400 on 100 shares, of IBM and about the same on each of the calls. Naturally, the percentage return is the same as in Table 1 above but since now look at the $14,000 profit on the April $85 Call! Even the profit on the April $80 call is nice at $6,300.

Scenario 2

Invest Equal Amounts of Money in Each Stock and Option and IBM Closes at $87

chapter9-4c

Now, here’s the risky part of trading options. In Table 1 and Table 2 we showed the results assuming IBM climbed from $84 to $87 a share by the expiration date The date that the option expires, usually the 3rd Friday of the month in the U.S.. Of course, stocks don’t always move the way we think, so Table 3 shows what happens if the stock price just declines a bit to $83 a share. Note that for the $85 Call we lost all of our money, but for the $80 Call we only lost $2,100 and, of course, for the stock we only lost the $100.

Scenario 3

IBM Closes at $83.00

chapter9-4d

Conclusion

If you are sure that a stock is going to pop up a few dollars before the next option expiration date, it is the most profitable (and the most risky) to buy a call option with a strike price slightly higher than the current stock price. If you want to be a little more conservative, you can also buy the call option with a strike price below the current stock price. When in doubt as to what option to buy, always look at the volume in the real market and go where the volume is (I call this following the “smart money”).

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Here is the one of the most important characteristics about option trading that you must know: Stock prices move in 3 directions–not only do stock prices move up and down, but they also can stay the same. If prices are random, then over a short period of time you would expect stocks to move up 33% of the time, move down 33% of the time, and stay roughly the same 33% of time. This is actually proven out by a lot of academic research that shows that buyers of calls or puts are only profitable about 35% of the time. So, if buyers of calls/puts are profitable only 35% of the time, that means that the sellers of calls and puts are profitable 65% of the time. The next topic addresses selling (also known as “writing” calls).


chapter9-3aWhereas a call option gives the holder the right to buy the stock at a certain price, a put option gives the holder the right to sell the stock at a certain price. A trader that buys a put option The right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a certain price before the expiration date. believes that the price of a security will fall in the near future. You are buying the right – not the obligation – to sell the security for an agreed upon strike price The price at which the option contract can be executed. in the future.

Let’s look at another example using Yahoo! (YHOO) stock. Suppose you think YHOO’s stock price is too high and you expect a sell off. You buy a YHOO October 25 put option at $1, or $100 per contract. This gives you the right to sell 100 shares of YHOO at $25 at any time prior to its expiration on the 3rd Friday in October. If YHOO shares are at $20 by the expiration date The date that the option expires- usually the 3rd Friday of the month in the U.S. in October, then you can exercise your put option and sell shares for $25 when the market is paying only $20 a share, giving you a $5 per share profit and an overall profit of $400 (100 shares x $5 – $100 cost) for that one option contract.

If the price of Yahoo! Is more than $25 by the expiration date, then your option to sell YHOO shares at $25 expires worthless.

Put options offer protection on the downside to limit your losses without severely restricting your profitability. For example, say you already own 100 shares of Yahoo! Stock and you have enjoyed a nice 50% gain in the last 6 months as the stock has gone from $20 to $30 per share. If you buy a put option at the strike price of $30, then you are effectively locking in your price gains for the duration of the options contract without having to sell any of your YHOO shares. There is a cost for this contract, just like there is a cost to be paid for any real-world insurance contract.

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Remember this old saying: “stocks slide faster than they glide” meaning that a stock’s price will generally tend to fall quickly while price rises tend to be gradual over time. For me, this has always made put options more attractive to speculate with since the time to see the price of a stock fall is usually shorter than the time to see it rise the same amount.

As with Call options The right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a certain price before the expiration date. , you can be a buyer or seller of put options to create protection or arbitrage positions.

Puts are similar to “short positions” (when you sell “borrowed” securities that you do not yet own outright). Don’t worry if it’s a bit confusing, it takes a while for it all to make sense. The best thing to do is keep reading.

Like all other investment strategies, you might win or lose with options. In both put and call options, you must understand the difference between buyers and sellers. The buyers of put or call options are NOT obligated to buy or sell at the agreed upon price. However, call and put sellers (called options “writers”) ARE obligated to fulfill their agreement, in one way or another. That is a significant component in the option world that we will explore next…

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OK, that was just a high level introduction. To keep calls and puts straight in your head, just remember that a call option gives you the right to “call” a stock away from someone (think buy), and a put option allows you to “put” a stock to someone (think sell). In the next topic we will look at some real option pricing, trading and strategies.


chapter9-2aA call optionThe right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a certain price before the expiration date. is the option (remember, not an obligation) to buy 100 shares of a stock for an agreed price (the strike price The price at which the option contract can be executed.) by an agreed date in the future ( expiration date The date that the option expires, usually the 3rd Friday of the month in the U.S. ).

Here’s how it works: you buy one call option contract which expires in October for 100 shares in Yahoo! (YHOO) stock. For now, let’s assume that this call option was priced at $1.00, or $100 per contract. It now gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of YHOO at $30 per share anytime between now and the 3rd Friday in October.

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In the U.S., most equity and index option contracts expire on the 3rd Friday of the month. Also note that in the U.S. most contracts allow you to exercise your option at any time prior to the expiration date. In contrast, most European options only allow you to exercise the option on the expiration date!

If the price of YHOO rises above $30 by the expiration date in October, to say $35, then your options are “in-the-money” by $5 and you can exercise your option and buy 100 shares of YHOO at $30 and immediately sell them at the market price of $35 for a tidy $5 per share profit. Of course, you don’t have to sell it immediately—if you want to own the 100 YHOO shares, then you don’t have to sell them. Since all option contracts cover 100 shares, your real profit on that one option contract is actually $400 ($5 x 100 shares – $100 cost). Not too shabby, eh?

On the other hand, if the market price of YHOO is $25 in October, then you have no reason to exercise your option and buy 100 shares at $30 share for an immediate $5 loss per share. That’s where your option comes in handy since you do not have the obligation to buy these shares at that price – you simply do nothing, and let the option expire worthless. When this happens, your options are considered “out of the money” and you have lost the $100 that you paid for your call option.

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Call options that are set to expire in 1 year or more in the future are called LEAPs and can be a more cost effective way to investing in your favorite stocks.

Always remember that in order for you to buy this YHOO October 30 call option, there has to be someone that is willing to sell you that call option. People buy stocks and call options believing their market price will increase, while sellers believe (just as strongly) that the price will decline. One of you will be right and the other will be wrong. You can be either a buyer or seller of call options.

The seller has received a “premium” in the form of the initial option cost the buyer paid ($1 per share or $100 per contract in our example), earning some compensation for selling you the right to “call” the stock away from him if the stock price closes above the strike price. We will return to this topic in a bit.

Understanding Call Options

 



chapter9-1aGenerally speaking, options are used in many areas of business and investment. Employees of larger companies frequently get stock options as an incentive to stay with the company for a long time and help the company increase in value. A lot of real estate transactions involve the option to purchase additional neighboring acreage at a certain price within a certain number of years. And even leasing a car usually contains a “purchase option” at the end of the lease term.

So what is an option? In its simplest form, an option is an agreement that gives the holder of an option the right, but not the obligation, to buy (or sell) something at an agreed upon price by an agreed upon time. Sometimes, the holder or buyer of the option pays a fee to the seller in order to have this right.

Here is a simple, common example that should help. You and your spouse locate a perfect home that you’d love to buy. The only problem is the timing, as you won’t be in position to purchase the home for around six months. You and the seller agree to a price to purchase the home in the time period that you want – up to six months for now. For this seller concession, you agree to pay $2,000 (non-refundable if you chose not to buy) to the current homeowner. This contract gives you the option, but not an obligation, to buy that house at the agreed upon price at any time for the next 6 months.

In the investment world, the “house” in our example becomes a stock and is called the “underlying security.” The agreed upon price is called the “ strike priceThe price at which the option contract can be executed. ” and the end date of your agreement is called the “ expiration dateThe date that the option expires, usually the 3rd Friday of the month in the U.S..” The important factors are the agreement, the selling/buying price, the cost of the option, and any conditions to which the parties agree. To review, here is the real world option language verses and the investing option language:

“Real World” language Investor language
House: Underlying Security (ie, Stock)
Buying price: Strike price
Date agreement ends: Expiration date or Expiry
Actually buying the house: Exercising the option

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A key difference between this house example and stock options is leverage. Stock options allow investors to buy 100 shares of stock in a single option contract. For the rest of this chapter, remember that a single option contract covers 100 shares. So when we say an option is trading at $1.25, that means that option contract will actually cost $125.

As you will see, options can play a key and often times exciting role in your investment success. Let’s get started…


Summary

This lesson focused on hot topics in the investment world. Obviously, by the nature of discussing “hot” topics, conditions can change quickly, sometimes making hot topics cold and others newly hot. However, the issues in this lesson have been “hot” for some time and should continue to be important for the foreseeable future.

Further, just because an investing theme is “hot” does not mean you should shun it. There are always opportunities to make money in these situations. The first way is by acknowledging and embracing the hot trend. As the saying goes, “the trend is always your friend” and if you are able to “ride the wave” of a hot investing theme, there is lots of money to be made while the speculative bubble is growing larger. However, you MUST know when to get out before the bubble pops and prices plunge!

The other way to play a hot investing trend is to short it: bet that the trend can’t continue forever upward and that prices will soon fall. The danger in this strategy is that, as economist John Maynard Keynes has famously remarked, “markets can stay irrationally strong longer than you can stay liquid.” So, the key is getting your timing right if you want to short a hot investing trend.

The wisest choice, especially for a new investor, is to keep your money far away from anything that seems too popular, too hot or too much of a “can’t miss” investment.

Once again, knowledge is power. The reverse, lack of knowledge, can become problematic in the investment world. Having a basic understanding of the popular topics in this lesson should help you increase your successes and better control your losses. Like a successful sports team, at the end of measurable periods (day, week, month, quarter, and year), you should strive to have more wins than losses. You needn’t strive to be perfect, as you might become discouraged. Try to achieve a good knowledge base and a smart strategy to maximize your winners. Be aware of the “hot” topics and use them to help you achieve your investing goals.

Glossary

Arbitrage:

Taking advantage of price differences in at least two different markets by buying the same security at the cheaper price and immediately selling it at the higher price.

Bulletin Board or OTC Stocks:

Stocks that trade on the NASD with tickers that end in an “.OB”, but have no listing requirements, very small revenues and assets, and prices that are volatile with light volume and large bid/ask spreads.

Day Trading:

The buying and selling investments (stocks, futures, stock options, commodities, currencies, etc.) within the same trading day, so that all positions are closed before the end of each day.

Pink Sheet Stocks:

Stocks that are quoted by the National Quotation Bureau, have tickers that end in “.PK”, are smaller than the OTCBB stocks, and that don’t even have to file financial statements with the SEC.

Swing Trading:

Identifying “channels” or “tunnels” of price movements on a stock’s chart and then buying when the price gets to the bottom of the channel and selling when it gets to the top, usually over a few days.

Further Reading
Day Trading Stocks
Pink Sheet Stocks
Arbitrage Stock Trading

Exercise

Try your hand at one of the investing styles described in this chapter that interests you the most and make several trades in your practice account to get a feel for how the strategy works.


The subject of arbitrage Taking advantage of price differences in at least two different markets by buying the same security at the cheaper price and immediately selling it at the higher price. is a bit confusing for the new investor, but you will undoubtedly hear the term as you start reading more and more about investing. In its simplest form, arbitrage is taking advantage of price differences in at least two different markets. By making simultaneous deals to maximize this difference, you can generate some profit using an arbitrage strategy.

For example, Stock A has a market price of $45 on one exchange, but has a current market price of $50 on another. Buying shares at $45 and immediately selling at $50 in a different market returns a tidy $5 per-share profit. Because of the global economy and the efficiency of electronic communications, this may be more of a textbook than a real-world example, but this is how arbitrage works.

The most common form of arbitrage is with Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). When one publicly traded company wants to buy another publicly traded company, they usually must pay a premium for their shares. For example, let’s say Company X wants to buy Company Y. Company Y’s shares trade for $20 and Company X proposes to buy them out at $30/share or a 50% premium.

Here’s where the arbitrage stock trader comes in quickly. Seeing that there is a proposed deal for Company Y’s shares at a much higher price, traders start to buy up shares and the price rises. However, there is always a chance the deal will not go through. Effectively, M&A arbitrage is a bet that a proposed merger or acquisition will go through.

Arbitrage operates as both an offensive and a defensive strategy. While you hope it returns excellent profits for you, arbitrage can also function as a “protection” and risk mitigation strategy. Making arbitrage trades can also protect you from a major loss, while giving you the opportunity to enjoy a serious profit in an upside market.

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To use a real-world example, you probably have done some arbitraging and just not realized it. Here’s a classic example: at Christmas time you go to an electronics store and buy a game for your kids that costs $99. The next day, at Wal-Mart you see the same game for $89. So what do you do? You buy the $89 game at Wal-Mart and return (sell back) the $99 game to the other store for a savings (you could say an “arbitrage profit”) of $10.


Investor sentiment, sometimes also called market sentiment, typically relates to the stock market’s “attitude” towards specific securities, industries, or overall market conditions (bullish, bearish, or neutral. While of limited importance to a buy-and-hold investor, investor sentiment can be an effective tool if you decide to live in the fast lane by adopting a day or Swing tradingIdentifying “channels” or “tunnels” of price movements on a stock’s chart and then buying when the price gets to the bottom of the channel and selling when it gets to the top, usually over a few days. strategy.

In the short-term, investor sentiment can affect market prices to a large degree. There are even companies, like Chartcraft, that publish “investor sentiment indexes” to indicate the level, positive or negative, of investor and market feelings.

chapter8-8aAs a newer investor, if you can get a sense of the investment community towards your stocks, you will have good information to make better trades. Even if investor sentiment is bearish (predicting a down market), you can adjust your strategy to make profitable trades in the short-term.

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chapter8-8c


chapter8-7aInsider transactions and trading has become a sensitive topic in recent years. Most thoughts tend to be negative (images of Martha Stewart in prison may spring to mind), giving the impression that all insider transactions are illegal or unethical. Not true.

Technically, insider transactions involve an employee of a company trading his own company’s stock or other securities. However, just because an officer of a company bought or sold his company’s stocks doesn’t mean that he was acting on knowledge that was not available to the investing public. Company employees buy and sell their shares quite frequently as they receive stock options as part of their compensation package, exercise those stock options, and then sell the shares they received from the options.

Obviously, company officers, management, and other employees often, by necessity, have access to internal information that fits a “non-public” definition. However, simply having this information and trading company securities is legal and acceptable. The public, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), and the Attorney General’s office will have no issues with normal trades by “outside insiders.”

The problem (and illegality) with insider transactions arises when corporate employees learn of “material information” (important issues, good or bad) that spurs them to buy or sell their own company’s securities. Should these trades involve executives or officers of the company, they may violate their “fiduciary responsibility” that comes with their powerful positions, which mandates trust, confidence, and honesty.

However, there is a way to profit from the legal trades of insiders. A company’s management is given windows of time each year to make legal purchases or sales of their company’s stock. And these transactions are all public information.

Doesn’t it make sense that company insiders would have the best view as to the future business prospects for its company? That’s the theory behind following the insider transactions of a company’s stock. If an insider makes a big purchase of their company’s stock, it’s usually a very positive sign, while the opposite is equally true.

Many websites offer insider trading information based on the forms that insiders must file with the SEC when they trade. The MSN Money site shows you insider transactions by stock tickers.

chapter8-7b

Insider transactions for Google (GOOG)

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As part of my fundamental analysis of a company, I always like to see the insider trading trends. Some people swear by it, but I’m just a little suspicious. Just because an insider or two is selling shares (maybe one is buying a new house and the other is doing some estate planning) doesn’t mean the stock is not a good value—it just means that someone at the company is buying a nice house.


chapter8-6aDuring the height of the dot.com explosion, a popular strategy – growth at any price – became the rallying cry for many investors. After the bubble burst, a more conservative strategy known as growth at a reasonable price, or GARP, became and remains a popular investing action plan.

Paying a high price for a rapidly rising security can result in some serious losses if it cannot sustain its impressive growth. Take a look at the graph of Crocs (CROX) below. This is that plastic, colorful shoe company that became very popular a few years back:

chapter8-6b

The chart above of Crocs, Inc. (CROX), shows us the risk of buying a high growth company too late.

Crocs is a great example of the risks of investing too late in a fast growing company. However, stocks growing at a more moderate, sustainable rate may be smart purchases because they tend to deliver more profit with less risk of major losses like the high flyers (CROX). Take a look at Google (GOOG) below. It is clearly a growth company and has been for years.

chapter8-6c

The graph of Google (GOOG)shows us how it has taken a few hits, but has a more sustainable growth rate and business.

Growth investing is similar to “value” investing as most people equate the ability to grow with the intrinsic value of a company and its stock. Growth at a reasonable price suggests you should value securities in relation to similar stocks, stocks that have experienced similar growth, but carry higher market prices.

For example, if you were interested in investing in big technology companies, you could use the GARP method to choose the fastest growing technology companies with the most reasonably priced stocks, relative to their profits and expected future rates of growth. Let’s look at
Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) using the GARP method.

Stock Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio Projected Earnings Growth (PEG)
MSFT 19.7 18%
YHOO 185.6 47%
GOOG 38.5 30%
AAPL 33.5 50%

Looking at the relative PE ratios and PEG ratios above, we see that Microsoft has the smallest valuation (a PE of just 19.7). But it also has the smallest projected growth rate (just 18%), which probably explains why it is a relatively cheap stock compared to its peers.

On the other hand, Yahoo! has a crazy, sky-high PE ratio of 185.6 and a very high projected earnings growth rate of 47%. Google and Apple also have high PE ratios, but nothing like Yahoo’s. Their projected earnings are also better than Microsoft’s: 30% and 50% verses just 18%.

So far, we can see that in this comparison, Google and Apple deliver very good growth without an expensive price tag. That eliminates Microsoft and Yahoo! from consideration, but how do we choose between Google and Apple?

Since Apple has better growth prospects (50% vs. 30% growth) and a cheaper valuation to Google’s (33.5 vs. 38.5), it is our clear winner in this GARP analysis. Not surprisingly, Apple was one of the best stocks to own in 2009 as it returned more than 120% to investors who owned it. And looking at a chart of all 4 stocks we considered above, it may be tempting to assume that everyone used the GARP method to pick stocks in 2009:

In 2009, Apple gained more than 125%, Google 80%, Microsoft 50% and Yahoo! just 30%

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Of course, the quality of a GARP analysis is dependent on the projected future earnings for a stock and these can change at any moment. Still, GARP analysis is helpful in choosing between stocks in the same industry because if earnings projections change for one company, they also usually change for every stock in that industry.

Don’t worry if you’re not right on every occasion; no one is. But, making smart decisions based upon solid research and reasonable expectations should return good profits over time.


chapter8-5aThe most popular investment strategy preached by brokers, fund managers and even famous investors like Warren Buffet is “buy and hold.” In its most basic form, this strategy believes that you should only buy stocks of solid, well managed companies that will deliver profits for decades to come; furthermore, that you should hold onto these stocks for decades and not worry about the wild swings that we see in the stock market. If you think this description sounds like the opposite strategy employed by day traders, you’re right.

Instead of spending your days looking at charts and drawing trend lines and support and resistance lines, spend your time studying the companies that are the biggest and most profitable in the World. What is the best energy company in the U.S.? What is the best consumer products company? What is the best bank in the World? What is Warren Buffet investing in?

When you are just getting started and trying to pick stocks, it is easier to follow the experts and ride the ups and downs as they do. As you can imagine, this strategy removes much of the built-in stress that occurs with day tradingThe buying and selling investments (stocks, futures, stock options, commodities, currencies, etc.) within the same trading day, so that all positions are closed before the end of each day. or swing trading Identifying “channels” or “tunnels” of price movements on a stock’s chart and then buying when the price gets to the bottom of the channel and selling when it gets to the top, usually over a few days.

However, the payouts are smaller and steadier and you will have less to brag about at the cocktail parties.

The acknowledged guru of buy-and-hold strategies is world-renowned investor, Warren Buffet. For decades, Mr. Buffet never bought a stock that he didn’t want to hold for at least 5 years, and he has seldom been a seller. Remember that Buffet once said his holding period is “forever.” Many other investing experts question the “intensity” of his strategy, believing that he is too restrictive by holding almost all of his investments. There is little argument that his extreme buy-and-hold strategy has worked amazingly well for him, as he is one of the wealthiest people on our planet.

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Warren Buffet’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is the best example of a buy and hold strategy. It has clearly outperformed the S&P 500 index (green line in chart above, ticker symbol SPY) over the last 10 years. As the S&P 500 index lost about 10%, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) gained about 75% over the last decade.

Mark's Tip
Mark

In spite of the conventional wisdom that buy and hold is the way to invest, many people are starting to question this strategy. Because times are changing so fast, technology is changing so fast, and consumers’ buying behavior is changing so fast, it appears that business cycles are getting shorter and that a successfully managed investment portfolio needs to react to these market conditions.


chapter8-4aPenny stocks are often popular with the newer and smaller investor. These investments are classically defined as any stock that sells for less than $5.00, traded outside the major exchanges, and often traded on the OTCBB (Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board Stocks that trade on the NASD with tickers that end in an “.OB”, but have no listing requirements, very small revenues and assets, and prices that are volatile with light volume and large bid/ask spreads. ) market or on the “Pink Sheets.” In recent years, the names “nano caps,” “micro caps,” and “small caps” have also become popular to identify penny stocks.

OTCBB stocks are offered on the NASD exchange and must file financial statements with the SEC and their stock tickers usually end in an “.OB”. Since there are no listing requirements, the companies are very small in terms of revenues and assets, and the prices are usually very volatile. Volume is usually very light, which therefore creates a large bid/ask spread. The next lowest level of publicly traded stocks is called “Pink Sheets” and is quoted by the National Quotation Bureau. These stock tickers usually end in “.PK”, and their companies are usually even smaller than the OTCBB stocks.

Mark's Tip
Mark
Pink Sheet stocks Stocks that are quoted by the National Quotation Bureau, have tickers that end in “.PK”, are smaller than the OTCBB stocks, and that don’t even have to file financial statements with the SEC. used to be printed on pink sheets of paper that were circulated each morning in brokerage offices, hence their colorful name. Sometimes these stocks don’t even have to file financial statements with the SEC—so beware when you get those emails from strangers that promote Pink Sheet stocks!

In the U.S., penny stock designations are not decided by the “market cap” (number of shares outstanding times share price), but by market price. In the U.K, however, penny shares do often refer to small cap stocks (companies with less than £100 Million) along with their low price.

Pump and Dump Schemes

The biggest problem with penny stocks is that because of their low price and light trading volumes, penny stocks can be subject to market manipulation by criminals who conduct “pump and dump” schemes. Here’s how the scam works: a company or individual distributes misleading or outright bogus information about a company that it owns stock in. Typically, these pump and dump schemes will publish a bogus press release announcing a “revolutionary product” to be released by a company or will post a false rumor about a company in a popular Internet stock market forum.

Then, when an unsuspecting public (who believe everything they read) starts to buy a few thousand shares, just in case the story is true, the stock shoots to $1.00, and the original owners who distributed the bogus information start selling their shares into the rally. Eventually the pumping and buying recedes, and then the price falls right back to where it was originally, or even lower. The public who bought the shares is sitting with huge losses while the pump and dump scammers have made a killing.

The Securities and Exchange Commission in the U.S. is on the constant lookout for these scams and they are highly illegal, but they still exist.

Mark's Tip
Mark

Penny stocks with compelling stories are tempting to throw money at. After all, wouldn’t YOU like to own 50,000 shares of a 2-cent stock that jumps up to 50 cents when they land that first deal with Microsoft or when they get their drug approved by the FDA? That would turn your $1,000 investment into a quick $25,000 investment! The truth is that a 2-cent stock is priced at 2 cents because it is probably worth close to nothing. But as the saying goes, a sucker is born every minute and those suckers continue to have hope and that drives the stock up. Learn this old Latin phrase: Caveat Emptor = Buyer Beware!

chapter8-4bOne investor who has literally made millions in busting penny stock “pump and dump” schemes is Timothy Sykes. As a teenager, he turned $10,000 into his first $1,000,000 by spotting and then shorting these pump and dump schemes.